'Never Trust an Important Question to Just One Scientific Discipline'—Alexander Trentin Interviews Miles Kimball about the Pandemic, the Role of Economists, MMT and Central Bank Digital Currency

Link to the interview shown aboveUnder a picture of me is the quotation “I am very concerned about using up our safe government spending capacity on anything less than the most important projects.”

Link to the interview shown above

Under a picture of me is the quotation “I am very concerned about using up our safe government spending capacity on anything less than the most important projects.”

Alexander Trentin is my favorite journalist to talk to. "Like handing a loaded gun to politicians” is the 8th piece Alexander has done based on an interview with me. I like this one best of all. Links to the others are at the bottom of this post. By permission, I reprint the full text of the English version of "Like handing a loaded gun to politicians” between the horizontal lines. The title of this post gives a good sense of the content of the interview.

Professor Kimball, what lesson can we draw from the pandemic?
Despite being a macroeconomist, I have found the very unusual macroeconomic situation much less interesting than the public health response to the pandemic. I think it would have been beneficial if economists were given a greater role on the public health side. Economists are quite well equipped to understand issues in public health, including epidemiology models. In addition to bringing economists into the policy-making on the public health side of the next pandemic, I’d love to see economists get involved in research on diet and health. As an economist, I have gotten some flak for blogging about diet and health every week. But economists actually have the key skills needed to understand issues in diet and health: economists are extremely well-trained in statistics, and well-trained to think about complicated systems. I haven’t found it hard to read papers about nutrition, whether they are based on experiments or on what different people do in their regular lives.

Are economists so much better than other disciplines?
No, I welcome scientists from other disciplines to do research on economic topics and have a debate with economists. Let me say it this way: Any important scientific or policy question needs to have at least two scientific disciplines looking at it. Never trust an important question to just one scientific discipline. It is a lot safer to get multiple perspectives from different disciplines with different scientific incentives, methods, assumptions, biases, and blind spots. Giving each discipline a monopoly over a set of issues that it owns is asking for trouble.

What would economists have done differently regarding the public health response?
It was clear for economists from the beginning that speed was of the essence. Every month you are in the pandemic costs a fortune. I think a lot of countries regret now that they did not spend billions of dollars on speed—for example, by paying to be in front of the queue for getting the vaccines. A simple cost-benefit analysis would also suggest that in a pandemic we should worry less about side effects. We were underspending on public health, while now governments must spend enormous sums on the economic fallout. You could argue that we almost arrived at the worst of all worlds.

What do you mean?
There were two polar opposite options at the beginning of the pandemic: do a very strict lockdown for three weeks to ensure that there are no infections—the eventual China strategy—or just continue to live as before—by which I mean more or less what was done during the 1918 flu pandemic. The first option would have resulted in limited economic damage and few deaths. Following the second option, we would have saved fewer lives, but we would have had relatively little economic damage. We chose a middle way which probably saved lives relative to the second option, but resulted in a huge economic fallout.

Are there other examples of ideas by economists?
Yes, the Nobel Prize laureate Paul Romer argued early for mass testing to catch Covid-19 before any symptoms arise and isolate those who are infected. Suppose for example that everyone in the country had been tested twice a week. That would have done a lot to take away Covid-19’s invisibility cloak early in an infection. And economists understood quite well, maybe better than representatives of other disciplines, that a cheap, fast, unreliable test is much more useful than an expensive, slow, accurate test.

Economists are often attacked for trying to quantify the value of everything, including lives, which many see as immoral.
If you give something a monetary value, in most cases you make it more important, not less. There is a research paper using cost-benefit principles to assess the value of the damage done worldwide by domestic violence in the tens of trillions of dollars. Numbers like that make people sit up and take notice. Putting a dollar value on a problem makes it seem like a problem practical leaders should worry about, not just bleeding hearts. Also, economists will tend to give people more choice, arguing for gentler approaches. For example, to deal with climate change, most economists favor a carbon tax rather than prohibitions.

This sounds like you do not see any faults in economics.
We could do much better. I see too much pressure on economists to publish in top journals instead of following their intrinsic motivation. The external motivations should be dialed down, the intrinsic motivations such as intellectual curiosity or the desire to have a positive impact on the world dialed up. The result of having external motivations dialed up too high is that economists follow fads and there is too little diversity of approaches.

Such as assuming that everybody acts as a homo economicus, i.e., completely rational?
Part of what I mean by “too little diversity of approaches” is that when simplifications are necessary, economists follow the same list of allowed simplifications rather than exploring what can be learned from different simplifications. Assuming that people are infinitely intelligent is a very useful simplification in economics, because there are a hundred ways for people to mess up, but only one way to do things right. But why do so many economists act as if we always have to use that simplification of infinite intelligence handed down by tradition? I don’t mean to say that makes things easy. An alternative to assuming people are infinitely intelligent is to use agent-based models, which pretend the people are much stupider than they really are instead of the usual assumption in economics that people are much smarter than they really are. Knowing the implications both of assuming people are stupider than reality or assuming they are smarter than reality is better than knowing only what happens if they are smarter, but what we really need are models that better match the reality that human intelligence is somewhere between those extremes. I have written about how hard that is in my paper “Cognitive Economics.”

Are there other instances where this is true?
One example is Quantitative Easing, the purchase of long-term or risky assets by central banks. In the simplest traditional model, QE is neutral: there is no important effect because it is only a swap of two assets that investors frictionlessly accommodate, responding to the new situation. Macroeconomists are definitely interested in writing down models in which QE has an effect. But there are many ways to write down a model in which QE has an effect. There is too little curiosity about which of all the possible mechanisms are really in play. The focus on coming up with some possible mechanism. This matters because we know that QE at the dosages we actually used was not enough—we experienced a prolonged recession after the financial crisis. So what we really need to know is what would happen if we did three or four times as much QE as we did last time. To make a reasonable guess about the side effects that would be caused by such a large dose of QE, we need to know which of all the possible mechanisms that could make QE do something rather than nothing is in play.

One heterodox way of looking on macroeconomics is Modern Monetary Theory, MMT. Their proponents argue that we should not worry about the fiscal deficit. Do you agree?
I think they are right that we should be more agnostic about the effects of deficits—and more fundamentally, the effects of the debt-to-GDP ratio. But overall, I think the true parts of MMT are standard economic theory. What they do is to jump from the scientifically correct statement that we should be more agnostic about just how dangerous more debt is to saying we shouldn’t worry about it until the harm is obvious. There are a lot of things we don’t know for sure, simply because—from a statistical point of view—there isn’t that much data in the macroeconomic time series. But my own guess based on what little evidence we have and from the theory that I share with the MMT folks is very different from their guess that we can spend with abandon and it will all be OK. Even if we don’t know exactly what the limits are, I think there are limits to the safe level of spending, and I am very concerned about using up our safe government spending capacity on anything less than the most important projects.

What MMT proponents often say is that inflation should be regarded as the critical factor.
Yes, if we see inflation going up strongly, we should worry. The problem is that inflation could build up over a long time. Think back to the 1960s when inflation was slowly rising. It took a long time for inflation to gain momentum, but it did. It is like a supertanker that is slow to turn. Inflation rising slowly now doesn’t mean it couldn’t rise faster later if we acted as if there were no limits to spending. Also, expectations matter. Currently, US inflation expectations are still anchored around the Fed’s target of 2 per cent. But they could become unanchored.

So, you would argue for caution?
MMT says it is speculative to say there is a problem before bad consequences are on our door step. That is scientifically true, and it is right to point to our ignorance. But it isn’t a good idea to fill in our ignorance with wishful thinking. Saying to politicians “Don’t worry about debt or deficits” is like handing them a loaded gun. Loaded guns can be used wisely, but often aren’t. I’d rather steer clear of danger.

There is now a lot of discussion regarding Central Bank Digital Currencies, CBDCs. Would you welcome such digital currencies?
In discussions of central bank digital currencies, there is a lot of focus on private households. I also fear that digital currencies will be modeled as a replacement for cash rather than as an account with the central bank. Central banks could take a gradual approach: they could begin by allowing companies to do transactions using a central bank account. In the US, to make sure those accounts aren’t too cash-like, I’d like to see them built as extensions to the Fed’s reverse-repo overnight facility.

What is wrong with having central bank digital currencies by cash-like?
Digital currencies should allow for negative interest rates. Any central bank that looks ahead should not commit the mistake of modeling CBDCs after paper money that does not allow for negative rates. If there is a zero-lower bound, i.e., the interest rate cannot fall far below zero, you might end up in a situation where you could lend easily and safely to the government with zero interest rates – which might in certain economic situations be too high. People would lend to the government instead of investing, doing research and development, or hiring. It could crash the economy.

Do you see negative rates as an option for the Fed?
Fed officials still resist it. Negative rates are not even part of the monetary framework yet. And there might be legal limitations to implementing negative rates on reserve accounts. (I am currently coauthoring a paper on negative interest rate law.) Fortunately, those legal limitations don’t apply to the overnight facility (which is based on Treasury-bill repurchase agreements). As it is optional to use that facility, the Fed is free to implement negative rates there. You could allow regular companies to use the facility for ordinary transactions. Limiting the amount of reserves a bank is allowed to hold at the Fed would then be enough to make the overnight facility the central lynchpin of the whole financial system.

Improving Your Blood Vessel Health by Strengthening Your Breathing Muscles

Link to the article shown above

Link to the article shown above

Where do the benefits of exercise come from? Some of the benefits probably come from exercise making people breathe harder, as a study based at the University of Colorado Boulder suggests. I have the links above, but let me give a few of the key quotations from Lisa Marshall’s article “5-minute breathing workout lowers blood pressure as much as exercise, drugs.” What they did was to have all the people in the study inhale for 5 minutes through a handheld device, half at high resistance and half at low resistance. At high resistance, this is called High-Resistance Inspiratory Muscle Strength Training (IMST). Here is what they found:

When assessed after six weeks, the [high resistance] IMST group saw their systolic blood pressure (the top number) dip nine points on average, a reduction which generally exceeds that achieved by walking 30 minutes a day five days a week. That decline is also equal to the effects of some blood pressure-lowering drug regimens.

Doing the 5 minutes of high-resistance inspiratory muscle strength training each day seemed easy:

… remarkably, those in the IMST group completed 95% of the sessions.

Assuming the results hold up, this treatment should be coming to you reasonably soon:

The National Institutes of Health recently awarded Seals $4 million to launch a larger follow-up study of about 100 people, comparing a 12-week IMST protocol head-to-head with an aerobic exercise program.

Meanwhile, the research group is developing a smartphone app to enable people to do the protocol at home using already commercially available devices.

These results are especially intriguing in relation to what the book Breath talks about. I found that book so interesting, that I have 4 blog posts on it:

  1. James Nestor on How Bad Mouth Breathing Is

  2. Carbon Dioxide as a Stimulant for Respiratory Function

  3. A Modern World of Endemic Jaw Dysfunction

  4. Human Skulls, Ancient and Modern

For annotated links to other posts on diet and health, see:

On Altruism, Externalities and Bossiness

At first glance, it is hard to understand the high dudgeon with which those on the political Right have responded to policies meant to address key pandemic externalities. It should be clear to everyone that efforts anyone makes to avoid getting Covid and to self-isolate once getting it are beneficial to everyone else in their county and everyone else in their nation. Thus, leaving aside any government policy, you are doing a good turn for others if you get vaccinated. (See “Two Dimensions of Pandemic-Control Externalities.”)

I know personally several articulate anti-vaxxers in the Covid context. One thing I hear from them is a deep resentment of being told what to do—not just by the government, but by heavy-handed attempts at social pressure. The delicious feeling of self-righteousness on the part of those who despise anti-vaxxers comes at a cost of extra resistance to getting vaccinated by those who hate being told what to do. Bossiness, which I myself can easily fall into, begets resistance—regardless of the good sense behind the bossy directive.

One important symptom of bossiness has been an effort to control the narrative. Sweet reason should be able to persuade without trying to suppress arguments.

Unlike the Leftist impulse to enforce policy by command and control—by government regulations and social pressure—the instinct of most economists is to deal with an externality by something in the spirit of a Pigou tax or subsidy. In the climate context, that would be a carbon tax. In the context of vaccination against Covid, we actually see a small Pigou subsidy in the prize lotteries for those who are vaccinated. Prize lotteries don’t make people angry like being told they are deplorable if they don’t get vaccinated.

In the absence of a Pigou tax or subsidy of the appropriate size, altruism matters. Rather than a long list of rules, a simple ethical principle for situations with externalities is to act as if there were an appropriate Pigou tax or subsidy in place.

Yet, I see it as always reasonable to argue for and lobby for an appropriate Pigou tax so one doesn’t have to try to be noble in relation to a particular externality. There is limited energy and attention that we have for ethical issues. Why not economize on that by converting as many ethical issues as possible into pragmatic issues of responding to an appropriately-sized Pigou tax or subsidy? Save our ethical energy and attention for issues that aren’t so easy to deal with by a simple measure. There are, for example, many areas where we need people to be good that can’t be observed as easily as whether they get vaccinated or not.

There is a fallacy I have seen in the Wall-Street Journal editorial pages. It says that people are totally free to donate to charity or to get vaccinated, so we don’t need any government intervention to encourage them to pay taxes or to get vaccinated. But it is totally rational for me to care about the state of the nation and of the least fortunate in the nation enough that I am willing to do my part in an effective collective effort to make things better, but for me to be selfish enough that the amount I can accomplish on my own to not be worth that same sacrifice. To be more formal, I think many people are altruistic enough that they would sacrifice a lot (as part of a collective effort where many people each individually sacrificed a lot) to have a huge number of strangers be better off, but not altruistic enough that they would sacrifice a lot to have a few strangers be better off. We admire those who are altruistic enough to sacrifice a lot to have a few strangers better off. And it is also meritorious to be willing to do one’s part in a joint effort!

To make the same point a little more vivid, if I have several siblings, I might be selfish enough to not want to take on the whole financial burden of caring for an aged parent, happy to do my part and worried that my siblings won’t do their part. In that situation, I might be glad that the government has set up social security taxes that take money from me and my siblings and give it to my aged parent.

Let me conclude by coming full circle to bossiness and its ilk. Unskillfulness in interpersonal relations across political chasms makes it hard for people to think straight. Enmity, self-righteousness and bossiness interfere with widespread wisdom.

Don’t Miss These Posts Related to Positive Mental Health and Maintaining One’s Moral Compass:

2021 First Half's Most Popular Posts

The "Key Posts" link in navigation at the top of my blog lists all important posts through the end of 2016. Along with

this is intended as a complement to that list. (Also, my most popular storified Twitter discussions are here, and you can see other recent posts by clicking on the Archive link at the top of my blog.) Continuing this tradition, I give links to the most popular posts in the first half of 2021 below into six groups: popular new posts in 2021 on diet and health, popular new posts in 2021 on political philosophy, popular new posts in 2021 on other topics, and popular older posts in those three categories. I provide the pageviews in the first half of 2021 for each post as counted when someone went specifically to that post. All the posts with 100 or more pageviews in the first half of 2021 are included.

I am pleased to be able to report 327,518 Google Analytics pageviews in the first half of 2021—over 50,000 pageviews per month. Of these, 18,061 were pageviews for my blog homepage. One other thing that stands out from the data is how well my back catalog does because of Google search.

New Posts in 2021 on Diet and Health

  1. How to Summarize a Big Chunk of Nutrition Research: Almost Anything You Are Likely to Think Of Is Better Than the Standard American Diet 887

  2. Evaluating Sweden's Food Guidelines 240

  3. How Many Thousands of Americans Will the Sugar Lobby's Latest Victory Kill? 192

  4. Elizabeth Bernstein on Getting Better Sleep 180

  5. On the Keto Diet 166

  6. Sugar Rots Your Teeth. Sugar Kills. So Don't Eat It. 150

  7. Starving Cancer Cells: We Need Metabolic Oncology, Stat! 149

  8. Semaglutide Looks Like the First Truly Impressive Weight-Loss Drug 138

  9. In Praise of the Squatty Potty 136

  10. How to Make Ramadan Fasting—or Any Other Religious Fasting—Easier 133

  11. Why Leptin Isn't a Blockbuster Weight-Loss Drug 130

New Posts in 2021 on Political Philosophy

  1. Peggy Noonan: Bring the Insurrectionists to Justice 160

  2. The Federalist Papers #22 C: Pillars of Democracy—The Judicial System, Military Loyal to the Constitution, and Police Loyal to the Constitution 145

New Posts in 2021 on Other Topics

  1. Friedrich Hayek on John Maynard Keynes: Keynes was Brilliant, but Economics was Only a Sideline for Him (video post) 6,489

  2. The Devil of Getting Criticized 1,256

  3. Higher Capital Requirement May Be Privately Costly to Banks, But Their Financial Stability Benefits Come at a Near Zero Cost to Society 1,096

  4. My Sister Sarah 567

  5. Preparing the Ground for Mathematical Creativity 317

  6. Did the Pandemic Speed Up Productivity Growth? 281

  7. A Political Economy Externality that Should Be Taught in Every ‘Principals of Economics’ Course 234

  8. The Optimal Rate of Inflation 219

  9. My Sister-in-Law Becky Porter Kimball 219

  10. Why You Should Impute Equal Credit to Co-Authors in Economics 200

  11. The Four Horsemen of Relationship Destruction 199

  12. Why Thinking Geometrically and Graphically is Such a Powerful Way to Do Math 175

  13. Reactions to Miles’s Program For Enhancing Economists’ Scientific Creativity, Engagement and Impact 158

  14. Tiktok of Econolimerick #1 149

  15. Elizabeth MacBride: Leonardo Da Vinci is History’s Best Case for Wasting Time (link post) 143

  16. Chris Carroll, Martin Blomhoff Holm and Miles Kimball: Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving 138

  17. On the Oppression of Women 127

  18. Easter Skepticism 118

  19. Only What is in Our Power is Our Duty 117

  20. Critiquing the Wall Street Journal Editorial Pages on Fiscal Policy 101

  21. Larry Summers Should Not Be Critical of Price-Level Targeting that Allows Inflation Above Target If It has been Below Target for a While 101

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Diet and Health

  1. Reexamining Steve Gundry's `The Plant Paradox’ 37,609

  2. Which Nonsugar Sweeteners are OK? An Insulin-Index Perspective 29,125

  3. Why a Low-Insulin-Index Diet Isn't Exactly a 'Lowcarb' Diet 14,502

  4. How Fasting Can Starve Cancer Cells, While Leaving Normal Cells Unharmed 7,705

  5. Whole Milk Is Healthy; Skim Milk Less So 4,570

  6. Can Fasting Help Fight the Coronavirus? 2,600

  7. Obesity Is Always and Everywhere an Insulin Phenomenon 2,339

  8. Stop Counting Calories; It's the Clock that Counts 1,959

  9. The New England Journal of Medicine Review of the Effects of Intermittent Fasting on Health, Aging and Disease 1,575

  10. Miles Kimball on Diet and Health: A Reader's Guide 1,165

  11. What Steven Gundry's Book 'The Plant Paradox' Adds to the Principles of a Low-Insulin-Index Diet 1,034

  12. Jason Fung: Dietary Fat is Innocent of the Charges Leveled Against It 963

  13. My Annual Anti-Cancer Fast 926

  14. Evidence that High Insulin Levels Lead to Weight Gain 901

  15. 3 Achievable Resolutions for Weight Loss 899

  16. Exorcising the Devil in the Milk 848

  17. Using the Glycemic Index as a Supplement to the Insulin Index 846

  18. Carbon Dioxide as a Stimulant for Respiratory Function 658

  19. The Keto Food Pyramid 619

  20. Jason Fung's Single Best Weight Loss Tip: Don't Eat All the Time 611

  21. Nutritionally, Not All Apple Varieties Are Alike 588

  22. Meat Is Amazingly Nutritious—But Is It Amazingly Nutritious for Cancer Cells, Too? 575

  23. The Case Against Sugar: Stephan Guyenet vs. Gary Taubes 543

  24. Layne Norton Discusses the Stephan Guyenet vs. Gary Taubes Debate (a Debate on Joe Rogan’s Podcast) 532

  25. Our Delusions about 'Healthy' Snacks—Nuts to That! 514

  26. Cancer Cells Love Sugar; That’s How PET Scans for Cancer Work 479

  27. Intense Dark Chocolate: A Review 447

  28. On Exercise and Weight Loss 439

  29. Vindicating Gary Taubes: A Smackdown of Seth Yoder 430

  30. Lisa Drayer: Is Fasting the Fountain of Youth? 428

  31. Beware: Monk Fruit Nonsugar Sweetener Raises Insulin 419

  32. 'Is Milk Ok?' Revisited 378

  33. David Ludwig: It Takes Time to Adapt to a Lowcarb, Highfat Diet 370

  34. 4 Propositions on Weight Loss 358

  35. My Giant Salad 354

  36. Kevin D. Hall and Juen Guo: Why it is So Hard to Lose Weight and So Hard to Keep it Off 350

  37. Letting Go of Sugar 346

  38. Best Health Guide: 10 Surprising Changes When You Quit Sugar 343

  39. How Important is A1 Milk Protein as a Public Health Issue? 340

  40. The Problem with Processed Food 340

  41. Which Is Worse for You: Sugar or Fat? 334

  42. Why You Should Worry about Cancer Promotion by Diet as Much as You Worry about Cancer Initiation by Carcinogens 328

  43. Sugar as a Slow Poison 305

  44. Anthony Komaroff: The Microbiome and Risk for Obesity and Diabetes 304

  45. The Case Against Monosodium Glutamate—Why MSG is Dangerous (as are Other Sources of Free Glutamate) and How the Dangers Have Been Covered Up 304

  46. Carola Binder—Why You Should Get More Vitamin D: The Recommended Daily Allowance for Vitamin D Was Underestimated Due to Statistical Illiteracy 288

  47. A Modern World of Endemic Jaw Dysfunction 288

  48. After Gastric Bypass Surgery, Insulin Goes Down Before Weight Loss has Time to Happen 268

  49. Fasting Tips 258

  50. How Sugar, Too Much Protein, Inflammation and Injury Could Drive Epigenetic Cellular Evolution Toward Cancer 247

  51. Don't Tar Fasting by those of Normal or High Weight with the Brush of Anorexia 216

  52. Good News! Cancer Cells are Metabolically Handicapped 212

  53. Yes, Sugar is Really Bad for You 197

  54. How Low Insulin Opens a Way to Escape Dieting Hell 190

  55. On 'Flipping the Metabolic Switch: Understanding and Applying Health Benefits of Fasting' by Stephen D. Anton et al. 179

  56. Jane Brody on Intermittent Fasting 177

  57. A Low-Glycemic-Index Vegan Diet as a Moderately-Low-Insulin-Index Diet 167

  58. The Trouble with Most Psychological Approaches to Weight Loss: They Assume the Biology is Obvious, When It Isn't 160

  59. Eggs May Be a Type of Food You Should Eat Sparingly, But Don't Blame Cholesterol Yet 158

  60. Inducing Autophagy 147

  61. Diseases of Civilization 144

  62. On Minimalist Shoes 140

  63. Fasting Before Feasting 137

  64. Salt Is Not the Nutritional Evil It Is Made Out to Be 126

  65. In Praise of Avocados 122

  66. Human Skulls, Ancient and Modern 117

  67. Mass In/Mass Out: A Satire of Calories In/Calories Out 114

  68. Is Milk OK? 112

  69. Cost Benefit Analysis Applied to Neti Pot Use 112

  70. How Sugar Makes People Hangry 108

  71. Have We Gone Too Far with Sunscreen? 106

  72. Black Bean Brownies 104

  73. A Barycentric Autobiography 102

  74. The Case Against the Case Against Sugar: Seth Yoder vs. Gary Taubes 101

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Political Philosophy

  1. The Social Contract According to John Locke 28,353

  2. Liberty and the Golden Rule 2,025

  3. John Locke on Why the Executive and Legislative Power Should Be Separated, but the Executive and Foreign Policy Power Should Be Combined 1,953

  4. On John Locke's Labor Theory of Property 1,279

  5. John Locke: The Only Legitimate Power of Governments is to Articulate the Law of Nature 1,096

  6. John Locke: The Purpose of Law Is Freedom 1,089

  7. John Locke's Argument for Majority Rule 1,084

  8. John Locke: Freedom is Life; Slavery Can Be Justified Only as a Reprieve from Deserved Death 1,060

  9. John Stuart Mill’s Vigorous Advocacy of Education Vouchers 1,017

  10. John Locke's Argument for Limited Government 993

  11. William Graham Sumner, Social Darwinist 974

  12. John Locke on Punishment 950

  13. John Locke: Legitimate Taxation and other Appropriation of Property by the Government is Limited as to Quantity, Procedure and Purpose 733

  14. Governments Long Established Should Not—and to a Good Approximation Will Not—Be Changed for Light and Transient Causes 650

  15. John Locke: Government by the Consent of the Governed Often Began Out of Respect for Someone Trusted to Govern 623

  16. John Locke: When the Police and Courts Can't or Won't Take Care of Things, People Have the Right to Take the Law Into Their Own Hands 589

  17. John Stuart Mill on Freedom from Religion 453

  18. John Locke's State of Nature and State of War 449

  19. Freedom Under Law Means All Are Subject to the Same Laws 415

  20. John Stuart Mill on Sins of Omission 411

  21. The Federalist Papers #22 B: Supermajority Rules Aren't an Adequate Fix for Departures from One-Person One-Vote—Alexander Hamilton 404

  22. The Metaphor of a Nation as a Family 392

  23. John Stuart Mill's Brief for Freedom of Speech 391

  24. John Locke: People Must Not Be Judges in Their Own Cases 366

  25. John Locke's Smackdown of Robert Filmer: Being a Father Doesn't Make Any Man a King 339

  26. John Stuart Mill on Other-Regarding Character Flaws (as Distinct from Self-Regarding Character Flaws) 337

  27. Democracy is Not Freedom 330

  28. John Locke: The Public Good 325

  29. John Locke: How to Resist Tyrants without Causing Anarchy 325

  30. John Locke on Legitimate Political Power 321

  31. John Locke: By Natural Law, Husbands Have No Power Over Their Wives 310

  32. Social Liberty 301

  33. John Locke: Defense against the Black Hats is the Origin of the State 301

  34. An Agnostic Prayer for Strength 300

  35. The Federalist Papers #10 A: Conflicts Arising from Differences of Opinion Are an Inevitable Accompaniment of Liberty—James Madison 286

  36. John Stuart Mill: In Praise of Eccentricity 282

  37. Cass Sunstein on the Rule of Law 269

  38. John Locke: Democracy, Oligarchy, Hereditary Monarchy, Elective Monarchy and Mixed Forms of Government 259

  39. John Locke: We Are All Born Free 259

  40. John Locke: The Law Must Apply to Rulers, Too 244

  41. John Stuart Mill’s Roadmap for Freedom 240

  42. On the Achilles Heel of John Locke's Second Treatise: Slavery and Land Ownership 235

  43. John Locke: The Obligation to Obey the Law Does Not Apply to Laws Promulgated by Invaders and Usurpers Who Do Not Have the Consent of the Governed 226

  44. John Stuart Mill on the Protection of "Noble Lies" from Criticism 226

  45. John Locke: No One is Above the Law, which Must Be Established and Promulgated and Designed for the Good of the People; Taxes and Governmental Succession Require Approval of Elected Representatives 224

  46. John Locke Against Natural Hierarchy 220

  47. The Federalist Papers #10 B: The Larger the Republic, the Easier It is to Find Thoughtful Legislators and the Harder It is to Put Together a Majority to do Unjust Things—James Madison 213

  48. John Locke on the Equality of Humans 210

  49. John Locke Treats the Bible as an Authority on Slavery 202

  50. John Stuart Mill: In the Parent-Child Relationship, It is the Children Who Have Rights, Not the Parents 198

  51. John Locke Against Tyranny 191

  52. John Locke Explains 'Lord of the Flies' 171

  53. John Locke: How to Recognize a Tyrant 171

  54. John Locke: If Rebellion is a Sin, It is a Sin Committed Most Often by Those in Power 168

  55. John Stuart Mill on Freedom of Contract 162

  56. John Stuart Mill: Two Maxims for Liberty 161

  57. John Stuart Mill on Balancing Christian Morality with the Wisdom of the Greeks and Romans 160

  58. John Locke: The Right to Enforce the Law of Nature Does Not Depend on Any Social Contract

  59. Getting Away with Doing Good 146

  60. John Stuart Mill on Rising Above Mediocrity 142

  61. John Stuart Mill on Freedom of Thought 136

  62. John Locke Off Base with His Assumption That There Was Plenty of Land at the Time of Acquisition 134

  63. John Locke on the Supremacy of the People, the Supremacy of the Legislature over the Executive, and the Power of the Executive to Deal with Rotten Boroughs 134

  64. John Locke on Monarchs (Or Presidents) Who Destroy a Constitution 134

  65. The Federalist Papers #2 A: John Jay on the Idea of America

  66. John Locke: Theft as the Little Murder 128

  67. John Locke and the Share of Land 126

  68. John Stuart Mill on Humans vs. the Lesser Robots 124

  69. John Stuart Mill on Being Offended at Other People's Opinions or Private Conduct

  70. On Despotism 114

  71. John Stuart Mill’s Defense of Freedom of Religion for Mormons as an Argument for Chartering Libertarian Enclaves 113

  72. John Stuart Mill on Benevolent Dictators 108

  73. The Federalist Papers #1: Alexander Hamilton's Plea for Reasoned Debate 104

  74. Edmund Burke's Wisdom 103

  75. John Stuart Mill’s Defense of Freedom 101

  76. John Stuart Mill on the Historical Origins of Liberty 100

  77. John Locke on the Mandate of Heaven 100

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Other Topics

  1. How Perfectionism Has Made the Pandemic Worse 10,226

  2. The 7 Principles of Unitarian Universalism 2,761

  3. Adding a Variable Measured with Error to a Regression Only Partially Controls for that Variable 1,653

  4. William Strauss and Neil Howe's American Prophecy in 'The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny' 1,272

  5. The Medium-Run Natural Interest Rate and the Short-Run Natural Interest Rate 1,175

  6. The Descent—and the Divine Calling—of the Modernists 1,076

  7. Noah Smith: Buddha Was Wrong About Desire 1,026

  8. Indoors is Very Dangerous for COVID-19 Transmission, Especially When Ventilation is Bad 805

  9. The Message of Mormonism for Atheists Who Want to Stay Atheists 766

  10. Five Books That Have Changed My Life 733

  11. How Economists Can Enhance Their Scientific Creativity, Engagement and Impact 703

  12. The Deep Magic of Money and the Deeper Magic of the Supply Side 568

  13. Glennon Doyle on Wild Humanity 526

  14. How Even Liberal Whites Make Themselves Out as Victims in Discussions of Racism 484

  15. Joshua Foer on Deliberate Practice 483

  16. The Mormon View of Jesus 482

  17. Grace Wetzel: Orgasmic Inequality 418

  18. Why I Write 417

  19. Q&A: Is Electronic Money the Mark of the Beast? 382

  20. Why Housing is So Expensive 379

  21. A Liberal Turn in the Mormon Church 377

  22. The Logarithmic Harmony of Percent Changes and Growth Rates 362

  23. It Isn't OK to Be Anti-Immigrant 352

  24. David Byrne: De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum 336

  25. 'The Four Agreements' by Don Miguel Ruiz (with Janet Mills) and `The Fifth Agreement' by Don Miguel Ruiz and Don Jose Ruiz (with Janet Mills) 327

  26. David Pagnucco: The Eurozone and the Impossible Trinity 312

  27. Returns to Scale and Imperfect Competition in Market Equilibrium 298

  28. The Complete Guide to Getting into an Economics PhD Program 290

  29. Government Purchases vs. Government Spending

  30. The Most Effective Memory Methods are Difficult—and That's Why They Work 281

  31. Critical Reading: Apprentice Level 279

  32. What is a Supply-Side Liberal? 279

  33. Will Your Uploaded Mind Still Be You? —Michael Graziano 275

  34. Expansionist India 273

  35. There's One Key Difference Between Kids Who Excel at Math and Those Who Don't 268

  36. Noah Smith—Jews: The Parting of the Ways 263

  37. An Optical Illusion: Nativity Scene or Two T-Rex's Fighting over a Table Saw? 260

  38. Capuchin Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay 252

  39. How to Introduce the Next Generation to Literature 249

  40. Supply and Demand for the Monetary Base: How the Fed Currently Determines Interest Rates 243

  41. Noah Smith: You Are Already in the Afterlife 243

  42. Why Taxes are Bad 235

  43. How and Why to Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound: A Reader’s Guide 235

  44. Going Negative: The Virtual Fed Funds Rate Target 230

  45. Cognitive Economics 229

  46. There Is No Such Thing as Decreasing Returns to Scale 228

  47. The Right Amount of Wokeness 228

  48. Clay Christensen, Jerome Grossman and Jason Hwang on the Three Basic Types of Business Models 227

  49. Robert Shiller: Against the Efficient Markets Theory 221

  50. The Shards of My Heart 210

  51. John Stuart Mill on the Role of Custom in Human Life 205

  52. Daniel Coyle on Deliberate Practice 204

  53. An Experiment with Equality of Outcome: The Case of Jamestown 197

  54. James Wells: The Discovery of the Higgs Boson Opens Up Other Puzzles in Particle Physics 190

  55. My Proudest Moment as a Student in Ph.D. Classes 190

  56. Shane Parrish on Deliberate Practice 189

  57. On Human Potential 179

  58. Wrath of Gnon: Bringing Back to Mind How Traditional Technology Kept Buildings Comfortable before Air Conditioning and Central Heating 174

  59. The Mormon Church Decides to Treat Gay Marriage as Rebellion on a Par with Polygamy 171

  60. Franklin Roosevelt on the Second Industrial Revolution 171

  61. On Teaching and Learning Macroeconomics 170

  62. Paul Finkelman: The Monster of Monticello 165

  63. Why GDP Can Grow Forever 163

  64. When the Output Gap is Zero, But Inflation is Below Target 163

  65. John Locke: The People are the Judge of the Rulers 163

  66. The Coming Transformation of Education: Degrees Won’t Matter Anymore, Skills Will 160

  67. Teleotheism and the Purpose of Life 159

  68. The Complete Guide to Getting into an Economics PhD Program 159

  69. 100 Economics Blogs and 100 Economists Who Are Influential Online 152

  70. Forgive Yourself 151

  71. The Message of ‘Sal Tlay Ka Siti’ 148

  72. Ezra W. Zuckerman—On Genre: A Few More Tips to Academic Journal Article-Writers (link to pdf) 145

  73. How Does This Pandemic End? 145

  74. Will Women Ever Get the Mormon Priesthood? 142

  75. Michael Coe on Joseph Smith the Shaman 134

  76. Bex's Rules for Life 132

  77. Hannah Katz: The Pros and Cons of Tipping Culture 130

  78. My Life Will Be Good When ... 127

  79. How Even Liberal Whites Make Themselves Out as Victims in Discussions of Racism 127

  80. The Costs of Inflation 126

  81. My Dad 121

  82. 18 Misconceptions about Eliminating the Zero Lower Bound 120

  83. How to Reduce Date Rape 116

  84. How to Turn Every Child into a 'Math Person' 113

  85. Modal Papers in Various Fields 111

  86. Peter Conti-Brown's Takedown of Danielle DiMartino Booth's Book ‘Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America’ 109

  87. Peter Conti-Brown's Takedown of Danielle DiMartino Booth's Book ‘Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America’ 109

  88. Eric Schlosser on the Underground Economy 108

  89. How Mormon Scripture Declares the US Constitution to be the Work of God 107

  90. Lumpers vs. Splitters: Economists as Lumpers; Psychologists as Splitters 106

  91. The Racist Origins of the Idea of the ‘Dumb Jock’ 106

  92. On Ex-Muslims 105

  93. Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy: Full Text 104

  94. What to Call the Very Rich: Millionaires, Vranaires, Okuaires, Billionaires and Lakhlakhaires 104

  95. New Evidence on the Genetics of Homosexuality 104

  96. On Master's Programs in Economics 104

  97. Christian Kimball on Middle-Way Mormonism 102

  98. Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Wages: A Debate Between Miles Kimball and Matthew Rognlie 102

  99. Co-Active Coaching as a Tool for Maximizing Utility—Getting Where You Want in Life 101

The Federalist Papers #34: War is Expensive. To Defend the Union, the Federal Government Needs an Ample Power of Taxation—Alexander Hamilton

Today we celebrate the 245th anniversary of the founding of our republic. 245 years is a long time for a republic to last. In lasting that long, the solutions to design problems that the framers embedded in the US Constitution have been crucial. In getting the US Constitution ratified, the Federalist Papers were crucial.

In the Federalist Papers #34, Alexander Hamilton points to a crucial aspect of the Constitution for the survival of the United States: an unfettered power of taxation that could finance the military survival of the United States. On his assertion that fighting wars and insurrections can be expensive, he has been backed up by subsequent history. The Civil War was very expensive. World War II was very expensive. And the other wars were not cheap.

Alexander Hamilton made another prediction, however, that in the due course of time was falsified: his claim that non-military government expenses would always pale in comparison with military expenses. In the last few years, during our continuing wars, Social Security spending is greater than military spending, Medicare is greater than military spending, and non-defense discretionary spending is almost equal to military spending. Even if we got into a bigger, hotter war, there isn’t enough GDP to make military spending that many times larger than Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid put together. Of course, that evolution depended on the amendment to the US Constitution allowing and income tax, so it was fair for Alexander Hamilton to think the constitution-before-amendments that he was arguing for was unlikely to lead to peacetime expenditures anywhere near the level of expenditures in a major war.

There has been a recent focus on our nation’s history having been steeped in sin. Of course it is: even as a nonsupernaturalist, I can say that human beings are steeped in what can reasonably be called sin (and there is plenty of cruelty and ugliness in the animal and plant world, too). What is remarkable is that we have crawled out of that morass of sin as much as we have. To me, the abolition of slavery we eventually got to is more remarkable than slavery; that the murder rate is below one hundredth of a percent per year is more remarkable than that it is above one thousandth of a percent per year, and the love that many people bear for others is more remarkable than the hatred and selfishness we see in the world.

With key amendments in place, the US Constitution keeps us in relative safety and made the legal and political successes of the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s possible. In the 2020s, we face a new round of geopolitical and social justice challenges, as well as key decisions about taxing and spending. But had things gone differently, the situation in 2021 could have been worse—much, much worse.

I am grateful for Alexander Hamilton’s efforts in arguing so strenuously for the Constitution. Below is the full text of his argument in the Federalist Papers #34:

FEDERALIST NO. 34

The Same Subject Continued: Concerning the General Power of Taxation

From the New York Packet
Friday, January 4, 1788.

Author: Alexander Hamilton

To the People of the State of New York:

I FLATTER myself it has been clearly shown in my last number that the particular States, under the proposed Constitution, would have COEQUAL authority with the Union in the article of revenue, except as to duties on imports. As this leaves open to the States far the greatest part of the resources of the community, there can be no color for the assertion that they would not possess means as abundant as could be desired for the supply of their own wants, independent of all external control. That the field is sufficiently wide will more fully appear when we come to advert to the inconsiderable share of the public expenses for which it will fall to the lot of the State governments to provide.

To argue upon abstract principles that this co-ordinate authority cannot exist, is to set up supposition and theory against fact and reality. However proper such reasonings might be to show that a thing OUGHT NOT TO EXIST, they are wholly to be rejected when they are made use of to prove that it does not exist contrary to the evidence of the fact itself. It is well known that in the Roman republic the legislative authority, in the last resort, resided for ages in two different political bodies not as branches of the same legislature, but as distinct and independent legislatures, in each of which an opposite interest prevailed: in one the patrician; in the other, the plebian. Many arguments might have been adduced to prove the unfitness of two such seemingly contradictory authorities, each having power to ANNUL or REPEAL the acts of the other. But a man would have been regarded as frantic who should have attempted at Rome to disprove their existence. It will be readily understood that I allude to the COMITIA CENTURIATA and the COMITIA TRIBUTA. The former, in which the people voted by centuries, was so arranged as to give a superiority to the patrician interest; in the latter, in which numbers prevailed, the plebian interest had an entire predominancy. And yet these two legislatures coexisted for ages, and the Roman republic attained to the utmost height of human greatness.

In the case particularly under consideration, there is no such contradiction as appears in the example cited; there is no power on either side to annul the acts of the other. And in practice there is little reason to apprehend any inconvenience; because, in a short course of time, the wants of the States will naturally reduce themselves within A VERY NARROW COMPASS; and in the interim, the United States will, in all probability, find it convenient to abstain wholly from those objects to which the particular States would be inclined to resort.

To form a more precise judgment of the true merits of this question, it will be well to advert to the proportion between the objects that will require a federal provision in respect to revenue, and those which will require a State provision. We shall discover that the former are altogether unlimited, and that the latter are circumscribed within very moderate bounds. In pursuing this inquiry, we must bear in mind that we are not to confine our view to the present period, but to look forward to remote futurity. Constitutions of civil government are not to be framed upon a calculation of existing exigencies, but upon a combination of these with the probable exigencies of ages, according to the natural and tried course of human affairs. Nothing, therefore, can be more fallacious than to infer the extent of any power, proper to be lodged in the national government, from an estimate of its immediate necessities. There ought to be a CAPACITY to provide for future contingencies as they may happen; and as these are illimitable in their nature, it is impossible safely to limit that capacity. It is true, perhaps, that a computation might be made with sufficient accuracy to answer the purpose of the quantity of revenue requisite to discharge the subsisting engagements of the Union, and to maintain those establishments which, for some time to come, would suffice in time of peace. But would it be wise, or would it not rather be the extreme of folly, to stop at this point, and to leave the government intrusted with the care of the national defense in a state of absolute incapacity to provide for the protection of the community against future invasions of the public peace, by foreign war or domestic convulsions? If, on the contrary, we ought to exceed this point, where can we stop, short of an indefinite power of providing for emergencies as they may arise? Though it is easy to assert, in general terms, the possibility of forming a rational judgment of a due provision against probable dangers, yet we may safely challenge those who make the assertion to bring forward their data, and may affirm that they would be found as vague and uncertain as any that could be produced to establish the probable duration of the world. Observations confined to the mere prospects of internal attacks can deserve no weight; though even these will admit of no satisfactory calculation: but if we mean to be a commercial people, it must form a part of our policy to be able one day to defend that commerce. The support of a navy and of naval wars would involve contingencies that must baffle all the efforts of political arithmetic.

Admitting that we ought to try the novel and absurd experiment in politics of tying up the hands of government from offensive war founded upon reasons of state, yet certainly we ought not to disable it from guarding the community against the ambition or enmity of other nations. A cloud has been for some time hanging over the European world. If it should break forth into a storm, who can insure us that in its progress a part of its fury would not be spent upon us? No reasonable man would hastily pronounce that we are entirely out of its reach. Or if the combustible materials that now seem to be collecting should be dissipated without coming to maturity, or if a flame should be kindled without extending to us, what security can we have that our tranquillity will long remain undisturbed from some other cause or from some other quarter? Let us recollect that peace or war will not always be left to our option; that however moderate or unambitious we may be, we cannot count upon the moderation, or hope to extinguish the ambition of others. Who could have imagined at the conclusion of the last war that France and Britain, wearied and exhausted as they both were, would so soon have looked with so hostile an aspect upon each other? To judge from the history of mankind, we shall be compelled to conclude that the fiery and destructive passions of war reign in the human breast with much more powerful sway than the mild and beneficent sentiments of peace; and that to model our political systems upon speculations of lasting tranquillity, is to calculate on the weaker springs of the human character.

What are the chief sources of expense in every government? What has occasioned that enormous accumulation of debts with which several of the European nations are oppressed? The answers plainly is, wars and rebellions; the support of those institutions which are necessary to guard the body politic against these two most mortal diseases of society. The expenses arising from those institutions which are relative to the mere domestic police of a state, to the support of its legislative, executive, and judicial departments, with their different appendages, and to the encouragement of agriculture and manufactures (which will comprehend almost all the objects of state expenditure), are insignificant in comparison with those which relate to the national defense.

In the kingdom of Great Britain, where all the ostentatious apparatus of monarchy is to be provided for, not above a fifteenth part of the annual income of the nation is appropriated to the class of expenses last mentioned; the other fourteen fifteenths are absorbed in the payment of the interest of debts contracted for carrying on the wars in which that country has been engaged, and in the maintenance of fleets and armies. If, on the one hand, it should be observed that the expenses incurred in the prosecution of the ambitious enterprises and vainglorious pursuits of a monarchy are not a proper standard by which to judge of those which might be necessary in a republic, it ought, on the other hand, to be remarked that there should be as great a disproportion between the profusion and extravagance of a wealthy kingdom in its domestic administration, and the frugality and economy which in that particular become the modest simplicity of republican government. If we balance a proper deduction from one side against that which it is supposed ought to be made from the other, the proportion may still be considered as holding good.

But let us advert to the large debt which we have ourselves contracted in a single war, and let us only calculate on a common share of the events which disturb the peace of nations, and we shall instantly perceive, without the aid of any elaborate illustration, that there must always be an immense disproportion between the objects of federal and state expenditures. It is true that several of the States, separately, are encumbered with considerable debts, which are an excrescence of the late war. But this cannot happen again, if the proposed system be adopted; and when these debts are discharged, the only call for revenue of any consequence, which the State governments will continue to experience, will be for the mere support of their respective civil list; to which, if we add all contingencies, the total amount in every State ought to fall considerably short of two hundred thousand pounds.

In framing a government for posterity as well as ourselves, we ought, in those provisions which are designed to be permanent, to calculate, not on temporary, but on permanent causes of expense. If this principle be a just one our attention would be directed to a provision in favor of the State governments for an annual sum of about two hundred thousand pounds; while the exigencies of the Union could be susceptible of no limits, even in imagination. In this view of the subject, by what logic can it be maintained that the local governments ought to command, in perpetuity, an EXCLUSIVE source of revenue for any sum beyond the extent of two hundred thousand pounds? To extend its power further, in EXCLUSION of the authority of the Union, would be to take the resources of the community out of those hands which stood in need of them for the public welfare, in order to put them into other hands which could have no just or proper occasion for them.

Suppose, then, the convention had been inclined to proceed upon the principle of a repartition of the objects of revenue, between the Union and its members, in PROPORTION to their comparative necessities; what particular fund could have been selected for the use of the States, that would not either have been too much or too little too little for their present, too much for their future wants? As to the line of separation between external and internal taxes, this would leave to the States, at a rough computation, the command of two thirds of the resources of the community to defray from a tenth to a twentieth part of its expenses; and to the Union, one third of the resources of the community, to defray from nine tenths to nineteen twentieths of its expenses. If we desert this boundary and content ourselves with leaving to the States an exclusive power of taxing houses and lands, there would still be a great disproportion between the MEANS and the END; the possession of one third of the resources of the community to supply, at most, one tenth of its wants. If any fund could have been selected and appropriated, equal to and not greater than the object, it would have been inadequate to the discharge of the existing debts of the particular States, and would have left them dependent on the Union for a provision for this purpose.

The preceding train of observation will justify the position which has been elsewhere laid down, that "A CONCURRENT JURISDICTION in the article of taxation was the only admissible substitute for an entire subordination, in respect to this branch of power, of State authority to that of the Union." Any separation of the objects of revenue that could have been fallen upon, would have amounted to a sacrifice of the great INTERESTS of the Union to the POWER of the individual States. The convention thought the concurrent jurisdiction preferable to that subordination; and it is evident that it has at least the merit of reconciling an indefinite constitutional power of taxation in the Federal government with an adequate and independent power in the States to provide for their own necessities. There remain a few other lights, in which this important subject of taxation will claim a further consideration.

PUBLIUS.

Links to my other posts on The Federalist Papers so far:

Media of Exchange and Unit of Account, Legal Tender and Forced Tender in El Salvador

In Intermediate Macro, I teach about the the functions of money: medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. Sometimes standard of deferred payment is added as a fourth function. It is good to have examples. El Salvador now has some interesting ones for medium of exchange and unit of account. (Almost anything is a store of value, so that is the least interesting function. The closest I can come to something that isn’t a store of value but is a medium of exchange is a credit card.)

Since 2001, the unit of account in El Salvador—which is also a medium of exchange—has been the US dollar. In their June 22, 2021 Wall Street Journal op-ed “El Salvador’s Big Bitcoin Mistake,” Steve Hanke and Manuel Hinds write:

Twenty years ago, after years of painstaking preparation, weeks of congressional deliberation, and a green light behind the scenes by the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, El Salvador effectively mothballed its currency, the colón, in 2001. The U.S. dollar officially became the coin of the realm.

Dollarization has worked: Since 2001, the average annual inflation rate has been 2.03%—the lowest in Latin America. 

Since June 8, 2021, by law, anyone offering a good or service in El Salvador must accept Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. But Bitcoin is not a unit of account in El Salvador. That is, people still primarily think about and record values in terms of dollars, not in terms of Bitcoin.

In addition to giving an example of a medium of exchange that is not a unit of account, El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law also points to an important distinction about what legal tender is and what it isn’t. In the US, legal tender means that preexisting debts can be paid in dollars, but doesn’t mean that merchants must sell to someone offering dollars. Steve Hanke and Manuel Hinds write:

Legal-tender laws, like those in the U.S., only specify what currencies discharge debts, including the payment of taxes. Forced-tender laws remove the freedom of choice in the use of currencies for all transactions, including everyday purchases like groceries. When forced tender is imposed, all domestic exchanges, including those that traders would rather conduct in another currency, must be conducted in the currency designated by law.

They then give Soviet and Nazi examples of forced tender laws.

Personally, I have been interested in the distinctions between medium of exchange and unit of account and the details of what legal tender means because these distinctions and details matter for negative interest rate policy. On negative interest rate policy, see my bibliographic post “How and Why to Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound: A Reader’s Guide.”


Judd Legum on Critical Race Theory →

In the Twitter thread the title of this post links to, Judd Legum makes Critical Race Theory sound a lot better than the Wikipedia article “Critical race theory” does. In particular, the current version of the Wikipedia article “Critical race theory” has this on academic criticism of Critical Race Theory:

Law professors Daniel A. Farber and Suzanna Sherry argue that critical race theory lacks supporting evidence, relies on an implausible belief that reality is socially constructed, rejects evidence in favor of storytelling, rejects truth and merit as expressions of political dominance, and rejects the rule of law.[19] Farber and Sherry additionally posit that the anti-meritocratic tenets in critical race theory, critical feminism, and critical legal studies may unintentionally lead to antisemitic and anti-Asian implications.[61][62] In particular, they suggest that the success of Jews and Asians within what critical race theorists argue is a structurally unfair system may lend itself to allegations of cheating, advantage-taking, or other such claims. A series of responses to Farber and Sherry on this matter was published in the Harvard Law Review.[63] These responses argue that there is a difference between criticizing an unfair system and criticizing individuals who perform well inside that system.[19][63]

In a 1997 Boston College Law Review article, Jeffrey Pyle argued that critical race theory undermined confidence in the rule of law, writing that "critical race theorists attack the very foundations of the liberal legal order, including equality theory, legal reasoning, Enlightenment rationalism and neutral principles of constitutional law".[64]

Judge Richard Posner of the U.S. Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals argued in 1997 that critical race theory "turns its back on the Western tradition of rational inquiry, forswearing analysis for narrative", and that "by repudiating reasoned argumentation, [critical race theorists] reinforce stereotypes about the intellectual capacities of nonwhites."[20] Former Judge Alex Kozinski, who served on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, criticized critical race theorists in 1997 for raising "insuperable barriers to mutual understanding" and thus eliminating opportunities for "meaningful dialogue".[65]

In his June 21, 2021 Wall Street Journal op-ed “Critical Race Theory Is the Opposite of Education” echoes some of these academic criticisms, contrasting the intellectual attitudes in Critical Race Theory to his open-minded Marxist tutor at Oxford. He writes:

Critical race theory—and its various postmodern cousins—is not some interesting interpretation of social and political history that we are free to examine, embrace or discard. Its proponents do not seek to frame a critique of modern America to be tested alongside alternatives.

They insist that a traditionally liberal approach to evaluating the merits of competing ideas is itself an outgrowth of an illegitimate system of oppression. Rejection of their critique is the product of false consciousness, since critical thought is itself invalid, the product of white male hegemony.

There certainly can be a version of Critical Race Theory that is exactly what we need: an “interpretation of social and political history that we are free to examine, embrace or discard. … tested alongside alternatives.” Some proponents of Critical Race Theory will be doing exactly this, while other proponents of Critical Race Theory will indeed be going too far by rejecting rational inquiry and rational judgment of evidence. In any case, those of us who are judging Critical Race Theory should be extracting the rational arguments from Critical Race Theory and paying close attention to those. Judd Legum points to some of those rational arguments.


In Praise of Herbs

For many people, salads seem healthy but boring. But they don’t have to be boring. My giant salad has evolved in many ways since I wrote “My Giant Salad.” Two of the best additions—when I have them—are sliced green onions and fresh basil.

Basil keeps good company with many other wonderful herbs. For example, fresh mint leaves can do a lot to jazz up almost anything. And Americans are ramping up the use of many other herbs. In “The Herb Revolution in American Cooking,” Bee Wilson describes many indications of the rise of herbs. First, use of herbs in typical American cooking used to be rudimentary:

In “Betty Crocker’s Picture Cook Book,” published in 1950, the anonymous author confidently pronounces that there are just “six simple herbs basic to all seasoning”: mint, thyme, sage, marjoram, rosemary and basil. Except for mint and basil, all of these are described as being good for stuffings and meat cookery, which reflects what a limited number of dishes herbs tended to be used in back then.

The author also grudgingly admits that bay leaves, chives, chervil, parsley and tarragon are useful “additional herbs.” But there is no mention at all of cilantro, which has grown in popularity along with Mexican immigration to the U.S. since then. 

Now, variety of herbs has increased:

Along with the older Western stalwarts of parsley and chives, Americans are increasingly buying Thai basil and makrut lime leaves and fresh methi leaves (a grassy and pungent herb much used in Indian cooking).

Quantity for a given dish is often higher:

Now, under the influence of Middle Eastern cuisine, we are getting bolder still in our use of herbs and seeing that they can be used by the handful rather than the tablespoon. The Persian omelet, kuku sabzi, is so green that there are more herbs in it by volume than eggs.

And the total amount of herbs used is rising dramatically:

Most Americans are using far greater quantities of herbs—and different ones—than in the past. Sales of fresh herbs in the U.S. have tripled since 2000 from 1% of all fresh produce sales to 3%. Fresh herbs used to seem like a fancy luxury ingredient compared with an old-fashioned jar of dried oregano, but a survey in 2018 by Shenandoah Growers, a Virginia-based produce firm, suggested that more than half of all shoppers now regularly buy fresh herbs.

Sugar is the lazy way to make food taste good. Herbs and spices are a more creative way, that avoids the harm of sugar.

Mormonism Wanted to Show It Was American. Now What It Means to Be American Is Up for Grabs—McKay Coppins

McKay Coppins January/February 2021 Atlantic essay “The Most American Religion” is a very long read, but has some incisive things to say about Mormonism. Let me distill out the most interesting and novel threads in what he said. All the quotations in this post are from that essay. McKay is a Mormon himself, and so sometimes uses “we” to refer to Mormons.

One key point he makes about Mormonism is how eager it is for validation in the broader culture. When I was growing up in Mormonism, every Mormon who was a celebrity in the broader culture was precious to us as Mormons. We were inordinately proud of the Osmonds and Johny Miller (the golfer) and the Marriotts (the hotel magnates). Mormons were (as I was) and are a little pathetic in this way because as McKay reports a theater critic telling him: “your people have absolutely no cultural cachet.”

McKay points to the importance for Mormon history of the desire for cultural validation:

Mormons didn’t become avatars of a Norman Rockwellian ideal by accident. We taught ourselves to play the part over a centuries-long audition for full acceptance into American life. That we finally succeeded just as the country was on the brink of an identity crisis is one of the core ironies of modern Mormonism.

The Republican tilt of Mormonism has something to do with the long-lasting effects of a deal the Mormon Church made to get statehood for Utah toward the end of the 19th century. (See “How the Mormons Became Largely Republican.” But the traditional Americanism of Mormonism has to do with trying to get acceptance.

Mormons still longed for full initiation into American life. By the end of the 19th century, they had embarked in earnest on a quest for assimilation, defining themselves in opposition to their damaging caricatures. If America thought they were non-Christian heretics, they would commission an 11-foot statue of Jesus and place it in Temple Square. If America thought they were disloyal, they would flood the ranks of the military and intelligence agencies. (At one point, Brigham Young University was the third-largest source of Army officers in the country.) To shake the stench of polygamy—which the Church renounced in 1890—they became models of the large nuclear family.

Unfortunately, one of the ways the Mormon Church tried to assimilate was taking on at least the basic American racism—something it is at pains to live down now, under the constraint that admitting fully that its past racism was a mistake runs the risk of diminishing the authority of past Mormon leaders. (See “Flexible Dogmatism: The Mormon Position on Infallibility” and “Christian Kimball on the Fallibility of Mormon Leaders and on Gay Marriage.”) And even changing the direct institutional racism required a revelation from God (as subjectively experienced by Mormon Church leaders).

Nevertheless, because Mormon racism was just trying to fit in, on average it never went as deep as the rooted racism that Mormonism was trying to blend in with. As some evidence that racism and its ilk doesn’t run as deep in Mormonism as one might expect from its history of overt, official racist policy, Mormons on average are much less subject to the ugly anti-immigrant sentiments than would be expected from their political leanings and the cultural moment:

According to one survey, Latter-day Saints are more than twice as likely as white evangelicals to say they welcome increased immigration to the United States. When Donald Trump called for a ban on Muslim immigration, the Church, hearing an eerie historical echo, issued a blistering condemnation. Later, when Trump signed an executive order allowing cities and states to veto refugee resettlement, Utah was the first red state in the country to request more refugees.

Muhammed Shoayb Mehtar, who served as an imam in Utah for more than a decade, told me that when new people would arrive at his mosque—many of them refugees fleeing desperate circumstances—locals would show up, offering food, furniture, and jobs. In some states, Muslims worried about harassment and hate crimes. But in Utah, Mehtar said, “folks don’t have this toxic view of Oh, they are foreigners; they want to take over. They don’t have that mentality within them.”

I suspect that my own views on immigration were heavily informed by the 40 years I spent as a Mormon before I left Mormonism in 2000. (You can see my views on immigration in “It Isn't OK to Be Anti-Immigrant,” ‘The Hunger Games’ Is Hardly Our Future--It's Already Here and “Handling Immigration in a Way that Addresses Legitimate Concerns.”)

Mormonism has real strengths in helping people have a positive attitude toward those that are different. (Even those in other religions need to be understood and empathized with in order to have any hope of converting them. See this Twitter thread.) And unlike Progressive doctrine, among the gulfs Mormonism helps people bridge is differences in political views. McKay writes:

Mormonism has a reputation for conformity—starched white shirts and white picket fences and broods of well-behaved white children. But in much of the world, Mormon congregations are characterized by the way they force together motley groups of people from different backgrounds. Unlike most American Christians, Latter-day Saints don’t get to choose whom they go to church with. They’re assigned to congregations based on geographic boundaries that are often gerrymandered to promote socioeconomic diversity. And because the Church is run almost entirely by volunteers, and every member is given a job, they have to work together closely. Patrick Mason, a historian of religion, calls this “the sociological genius of Mormonism”—in a society of echo chambers and bowling alone, he says, the Church has doubled down on an old-fashioned communitarianism.

… at church, my most meaningful relationships were with people who resided well outside my bubble—middle-aged mail carriers and Caribbean immigrants; white-haired retirees and single parents navigating the city’s morass of social services.

Those who don’t know Mormonism well often assume that they have standard Republican views. But Mormonism has a strong belief in redistribution and people’s need for help from others, but redistribution and help from others by the Church (acting either as individuals or institutionally) rather than by the state:

Though Utah is very conservative, its residents generally don’t romanticize rugged individualism or Darwinian hyper-capitalism. It has the lowest income inequality in the country, and ranks near the top for upward mobility. The relative lack of racial diversity no doubt helps skew these metrics—structural racism doesn’t take the same toll in a state that is 78 percent white. But economists say the tightly networked faith communities have provided a crucial extra layer to the social safety net.

For Mormons, there is a distinct set of religious ideals that can win out over political partisanship. McKay has two passages about Mormonism and Trumpism. The facts alone are fascinating, even if you disagree with McKay’s interpretation:

In the past few years, Mormons have become a subject of fascination for their surprising resistance to Trumpism. Unlike most of the religious right, they were decidedly unenthusiastic about Donald Trump. From 2008 to 2016, the Republican vote share declined among Latter-day Saints more than any other religious group in the country. And though Trump won back some of those defectors in 2020, he continued to underperform. Joe Biden did better in Utah than any Democrat since 1964, and Mormon women likely played a role in turning Arizona blue.

Scholars have offered an array of theories to explain this phenomenon: that Mormon communities are models of connectedness and trust, that the Church’s unusual structure promotes consensus-building over culture war, that the faith’s early persecution has made its adherents less receptive to nativist appeals.


… conservative Mormons were among the GOP voters most resistant to Trump’s rise in 2016. He finished dead last in Utah’s Republican primary, and consistently underperformed in Mormon-heavy districts across the Mountain West. When the Access Hollywood tape leaked, the Church-owned Deseret News called on Trump to drop out. On Election Day, he received just over half of the Mormon vote, whereas other recent Republican nominees had gotten closer to 80 percent.

Trump did better in 2020, owing partly to the lack of a conservative third-party candidate like Evan McMullin. (Full postelection data weren’t available as of this writing.) But the Trump era has left many Mormons—once the most reliable Republican voters in the country—feeling politically homeless. They’ve begun to identify as moderate in growing numbers, and the polling analyst Nate Silver has predicted that Utah could soon become a swing state. In June, a survey found that just 22 percent of BYU students and recent alumni were planning to vote for Trump.

Robert P. Jones, the head of the Public Religion Research Institute, says this Mormon ambivalence is notable when compared with white evangelicals’ loyalty to Trump. “History and culture matter a lot,” Jones told me. “Partisanship today is such a strong gravitational pull. I think what we’re seeing with Mormons is that there’s something else pulling on them too.”

An extreme case of a Mormon Republican resisting Trumpism is my distant cousin Mitt Romney voting to convict Donald Trump. Here, some of what I see as the “Stoic” virtues of Mormonism came into play:

After Romney voted to remove Trump from office—standing alone among Republican senators—he told me his life in the Church had steeled him for this lonely political moment, in which neither the right nor the left is ever happy with him for long. “One of the advantages of growing up in my faith outside of Utah is that you are different in ways that are important to you,” he said. In high school, he was the only Mormon on campus; during his stint at Stanford, he would go to bars with his friends and drink soda. Small moments like those pile up over a lifetime, he told me, so that when a true test of conscience arrives, “you’re not in a position where you don’t know how to stand for something that’s hard.”

I have half-joked or quarter-joked often in my blog about “save-the-world” projects. (And I posted my Unitarian-Universalist sermon “So You Want to Save the World.”) I got this combination of grandiosity, desire to make a—and belief that it is possible to make a difference—partly from my Mormon background (and from my high-status within Mormonism as a male and a grandchild of the 1973-1985 head of the Mormon Church, Spencer W. Kimball).

In the political realm, the idea that Mormons can make a difference is encapsulated in a powerful Mormon legend McKay lays out:

There is a story about Joseph Smith that has circulated among Mormons for generations. In 1843, a year before his death, he was meeting with a group of Church elders in Nauvoo when he began to prophesy. The day would come, Smith predicted, when the United States would be on the brink of collapse—its Constitution “hanging by a thread”—only to be saved by a “white horse” from God’s true Church.

Historians and Church leaders have long dismissed the story as apocryphal … But the notion has lingered for a reason. It appeals to the Mormons’ faith in America—and to their conviction that they have a role to play in its preservation.

Interestingly, Mormon efforts to make a political difference are showing up in a certain level of resistance to Trumpism. (For example, “Mormon Women for Ethical Government” arose in reaction to the election that made Donald Trump president.

It should be obvious that I find a lot to admire in Mormonism. And just as obviously, I found many things to object to in Mormonism, otherwise I wouldn’t have left the Church of my ancestors. Many Mormons and many who oppose Mormonism assume Mormonism is a take-it-or-leave-it proposition. Not so. Like most complex objects, it is quite possible to learn from and emulate the good parts and reject the bad.

Biological Evolution Right Before Our Eyes

I get annoyed often these days reading or hearing people express their devotion to science but treating science as if it were an authoritarian enterprise. Saying one should believe in the scientists as if they were some kind of high priests is contrary to the spirit of science. The spirit of science is pointing to the evidence.

Now, of course it is not always possible to double-check and personally understand everything that scientists have done, so some degree of trust in scientists is a practical necessity, but the spirit of science is to go as far in that direction as is at all reasonable. For biological evolution, there is a lot that can be done toward citing evidence that can be understood by most people—including by people who want to disbelieve in biological evolution. Cal Flyn’s June 3, 2021 Wall Street Journal article “When Pollution Drives Evolution” is a great help in that regard. No longer are light and dark colored moths the best examples of evolution in modern times.

Let me quote some highlights from Cal Flyn’s article, with passages separated by added bullets:

  • Since the late 18th century, the heavy industry that lines New Jersey’s Newark Bay has belched a thousand insidious contaminants into the waterway. Tanneries used sulfuric acid to strip hides, arsenic to preserve them and chromium to tan them. Hat makers used mercury nitrates to turn fur into felt. Later, factories produced polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), highly toxic oils and waxes once used as coolants and insulators, as well as the phenoxy herbicides known as Agent Orange and their noxious byproduct dioxin—one of the most toxic substances known.

    In humans, these pollutants can cause every kind of cancer. In fish, PCBs alone are known to cause devastating deformities and developmental issues, including impaired fertility.

  • In 2016, a team of scientists at the University of California, Davis, genetically sequenced killifish from four contaminated harbors, including Newark Bay, and compared the genomes to those from uncontaminated sites. The pollution-tolerant populations had each evolved similar adaptations that rendered them up to 8,000 times more resistant to industrial pollutants, allowing them to live in water that would normally kill them.

    This was evolution at a stunningly fast pace, given that the most harmful toxins were released in the 1950s and 1960s. And the killifish is not the only species to have managed this feat. The Atlantic tomcod in the nearby Hackensack River, for example, has also evolved a gene that makes it immune to the effects of PCBs.

  • … tawny owls in Finland are now changing their colors. Tawny owls come in two colorations, dark brown and pale gray. Records suggest that the proportion of dark owls is increasing, which researchers have linked to declines in snow cover.

  • Overfishing and overhunting have driven the evolution of smaller fish, which are better at slipping through nets, and tuskless elephants, since tusked species are more often killed for their ivory. In one South African national park, 98% of female elephants are now born tuskless. And that’s not to mention our ongoing arms races with pesticide-resistant insects, drug-resistant viruses and antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

There is no doubt that some disbelievers in evolution will remain unconvinced by even these examples, but I’ll bet that some will be convinced. And the mind and character of the one arguing for evolution is greatly enriched by making arguments based on facts such as these, rather than making an argument from authority.

On freedom of speech as opposed to authoritarian approaches to thought control, see: