Quartz #50—>Odious Wealth: The Outrage is Not So Much Over Inequality but All the Dubious Ways the Rich Got Richer

Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 50th Quartz column, “Odious Wealth: The Outrage is Not So Much Over Inequality but All the Dubious Ways the Rich Got Richer,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on June 30, 2014. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© June 30, 2014: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2017. All rights reserved.


Concern about income inequality, and the even more striking inequality in wealth in the United States, is a key theme for the 2014 US congressional elections and has made Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century a surprise bestseller. There are many reasons to be concerned about wealth inequality itself, regardless of the source of that inequality, but it is hard to pursue a discussion on the topic for long before someone makes a claim about whether the wealthy acquired their money in a deserving way. Partisans on the political left and right know which side of this argument they are supposed to emphasize: many who feel the government needs more revenue conveniently argue as if almost all wealth comes from underhanded, unscrupulous skullduggery, while many who feel the government needs less revenue conveniently argue as if almost all wealth were created by the likes of Steve Jobs, who brought us i-everything. But unlike these partisan stories, in every list of 1,500 or so billionaires, many deserve their wealth while others deserve very little of the wealth they have. While in some cases the principles for whether wealth is deserved or not are obvious, in other cases they are quite subtle.

To start with an easy category, wealth obtained by deceit is illegitimate. For example, given the way tobacco companies lied about the dangers of smoking,the gigantic legal judgments against them seem appropriate (though it is too bad how big a share of that money went into the pockets of lawyers). And although the magnitude of the crime might not be as great, GM’s recently outed behavior in hiding problems with ignition switches has a disturbing resonance with the earlier behavior of the tobacco companies. As these examples make clear, standard legal principles often make it possible to take away wealth obtained by deceit once that deceit is well established. But a greater hatred of deceit on the part of juries, judges, and legislators would help in further neutralizing this form of wealth.

If undeserved wealth always arose in cases where the logic was as simple as that for deceit, and were similarly reprehensible from a criminal or civil law point of view, then the issue of undeserved wealth could be appropriately handled in the courts. In an IMF paper, Harvard Economics professor Michael Kremer and Northwestern University Economics professor Seema Jayachandran make the intriguing proposal that debt incurred by a non-democratic government (after the appropriate international organization has declared that the debt is not in the interests of the people of a country) should be considered “odious debt” that later (and hopefully better) governments of that country need not pay back.

We could similarly talk about “odious wealth”—wealth that is hateful in its origin. But our instincts about the merits of different means of acquiring wealth often go astray. Let me take two extreme examples: old songs that people love and the kind of “vulture capitalism” whose reputation helped sink Mitt Romney’s chances in the 2012 presidential election.

There is currently a dispute over whether songs recorded before 1972 should continue to earn royalties. By naming their bill to extend royalties to pre-1972 recordings the “Respecting Senior Performers as Essential Cultural Treasures Act or “RESPECT” Act, congressmen George Holdings and John Coyners are using the fact that the musicians who recorded songs before 1972 (that we still listen to 42 years later) inspire feelings of gratitude, since songs of lasting popularity give many listeners much more pleasure than those listeners have paid for the right to listen to those songs. But the prospect of that very gratitude, plus 42 years of royalties, would have provided more than enough motivation for musicians to work hard back in 1971 to make great songs, if they had the ability.

Forty-two years is a long time. And money coming in the near future looks (and is) more valuable than money coming in the more distant future. And even songs that last typically get more play in their early years. So at the time a musician is working hard on a song, the prospect of 42 years of royalties and undying fame should, to a surprisingly close approximation, be just as motivating as, say, 80 years of royalties and undying fame. So we don’t need to extend royalties to pre-1972 recordings to bolster the confidence of musicians making songs now that they will be properly rewarded for their efforts. And on the downside, charging royalties for pre-1972 songs has the potential to inhibit the development of internet and satellite radio—and in particular how often people get to listen to the best pre-1972 songs on internet and satellite radio. So there is a lot of downside, not much upside to extending royalties to pre-1972 recordings. But the folks who would earn those royalties, if they are still alive, are attractive recipients of the money, even in cases where they are relatively wealthy.

By contrast, few ways of getting wealth seem less attractive than acquiring companies and then making them more profitable by laying off many of the employees. In August 29, 2012, Matt Taibbi wrote in the Rolling Stone essay “Greed and debt: the true story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital:”

A man makes a $250 million fortune loading up companies with debt and then extracting million-dollar fees from those same companies, in exchange for the generous service of telling them who needs to be fired in order to finance the debt payments he saddled them with in the first place. …

Instead of building new companies from the ground up, we took out massive bank loans and used them to acquire existing firms, liquidating every asset in sight and leaving the target companies holding the note.

This is what I am calling “vulture capitalism.” But vultures have an important place in the ecosystem. Just like literal vultures, who help clear away dead carcasses, vulture capitalists help in the difficult process of moving workers from making and doing things that people don’t need as much anymore to making and doing things that people are eager to pay for. For example, Mitt Romney helped unwind K-B Toys, whose toys could no longer compete with video games. This was enormously painful for the employees of K-B Toys, who were ultimately sent on their way in an arduous transition to new jobs (and some to early retirement). But an enormous amount of good work has been accomplished by former employees of K-B Toys in new jobs with efforts that would have been squandered on trying to make unwanted toys if K-B Toys had been kept limping along for a few more years.

Since they are unlikely to get much gratitude from their brutal but useful work, vulture capitalists have to be rewarded with money. Otherwise, who would want to do that task of dismantling companies and letting go of people and other resources that should be devoted to other purposes?

None of this is to say that the incentives for vulture capitalism are precisely right. It is unfortunate when, as is too often the case, the efforts of highly trained professionals are focused on transactions that make sense only because of quirks of the tax law. But the basic idea that the old must sometimes be dismantled to provide the human and non-human building blocks for new things is sound. And if something that painful is going to happen, it sometimes makes sense to say as Jesus said to Judas: “What you are about to do, do quickly.” The wealth earned by vulture capitalists may then look like the 30 pieces of silver Judas was given for betraying Jesus, but it must be considered legitimate, nonetheless, because the job needs to be done.

There are two points to take away. First, it is not right to treat all large fortunes as odious wealth (or as otherwise illegitimate in origin) or to treat all large fortunes as beneficent wealth. Second, without careful analysis, our instincts will often lead us astray about which is which.

Although people complain a lot about wealth and income inequality, I suspect that a great deal of that anger comes from how the rich made their fortunes. An ideal version of capitalism—the version in the economic models taught in introductory economics classes around the world—would make it impossible to get rich without doing great good for society. There are certainly areas where doing great good for society is not understood and therefore not appreciated. But there are also many areas where the wrong things are rewarded because of market distortions, or where the government piles on rewards beyond those that are needed.

Among market distortions, lies and deception are a key category. But it is also a problem that the legal remedies available to deal with lies and deception are not matched by any ability to bring a legal tort claim for, say, raising the planet’s temperature by burning coal.

Among excessive rewards caused by the government, bailouts without increases in equity requirements big enough to prevent future bailouts are especially unfair. But actions by the government to protect the profits and business models of firms already in place by standing in the way of firms doing new things in new ways  can in the long run be just as damaging.  And in the digital age, copyright law is long overdue for reevaluation.

Wealth and income inequality are a topic of perennial fascination. But the heat has been turned up not only by increases in such inequality, but also by the feeling that the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession suggest that something is fundamentally wrong with our economic system. Among the many reasons to redesign the monetary plumbing of our economic system to avoid a repeat of the Great Recession, one of the most important is to help us gain clarity on the many long-run issues we face, of which economic inequality is one of the most difficult to deal with.

Charles Lane on Thomas Piketty and Henry George

Link to Wikipedia article on Henry George

Charles Lane compares Thomas Piketty to Henry George in hi May 15, 2014 Washington Post op-ed,

Thomas Piketty identifies an important ill of capitalism but not its cure.

Charles gives a succinct evaluation of both Thomas’s and Henry’s proposals:

Alas, Piketty’s global wealth tax and George’s single tax suffer from the same defect, and it’s not political impracticality — after all, George nearly got himself elected mayor of New York City in 1886.

It’s the inherent difficulty of separating the productive, untaxed component of the return on land or capital from the unproductive, taxed part. …

As a result, it’s hard to devise a tax on wealth that raises a significant amount of revenue but doesn’t discourage at least some socially beneficial saving or entre­pre­neur­ship. The potential for adverse unintended consequences — economic and political — is greater than Piketty seems to realize.

Quite distinct from this concern about incentives, Charles goes on to a positive note about having power in the hands of private individuals:

Great private fortunes can indeed entitle their owners to an undue share of society’s current income and political power. At times, however, private wealth can serve as a font of charity or, indeed, a bulwark against government overreach.

These are indeed the key issues to think about in relation to wealth taxation.

I have always liked Henry George’s proposal, and pointed out how a carbon tax can be seen as akin to Henry George’s single tax in my post “‘Henry George and the Carbon Tax’: A Quick Response to Noah Smith.” And I like Noah’s application of Henry George’s idea to San Francisco. But Thomas Piketty himself points to the difficulty of getting enough revenue from taxing the value of unimproved land alone:

In particular, it seems impossible to compare in any precise way the value of pure land long ago with its value today. The principal issue today is urban land: farmland is worth less than 10 percent of national income in both France and Britain. But it is no easier to measure the value of pure urban land today, independent not only of buildings and construction but also of infrastructure and other improvements needed to make the land attractive, than to measure the value of pure farmland in the eighteenth century. According to my estimates, the annual flow of investment over the past few decades can account for almost all the value of wealth, including wealth in real estate, in 2010. …

… the fact that total capital, especially in real estate, in the rich countries can be explained fairly well in terms of the accumulation of flows of saving and investment obviously does not preclude the existence of large local capital gains linked to the concentration of population in particular areas, such as major capitals. It would not make much sense to explain the increase in the value of buildings on the Champs-Elysées or, for that matter, anywhere in Paris exclusively in terms of investment flows. Our estimates suggest, however, that these large capital gains on real estate in certain areas were largely compensated by capital losses in other areas, which became less attractive, such as smaller cities or decaying neighborhoods. (Capital in the Twenty-First Century, p. 197.)

Thomas Piketty’s example of the unearned rise in the value of one’s urban land may seem like an opening for non-distortionary taxation, but in fact from the standpoint of efficiency these positive externalities suggest subsidizing all activities that create these positive externalities for land values, of which just as many are private activities as are activities of the government. (And many activities of the government do not raise land values.) Also, I worry that urban governments often make land prices for certain favored plots go up while reducing the total value of land (and social welfare) by putting tight restrictions on building. This is a concern that Matthew Yglesias raises in his book The Rent Is Too Damn High: What To Do About It, And Why It Matters More Than You Think.

Timothy Dolan: The Pope's Case for Virtuous Capitalism

Cardinal Timothy Dolan is the Catholic Archbishop of New York, and was President of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops from 2010–2013. So Timothy’s interpretation in his May 22, 2014 Wall Street Journal op-ed, The Pope’s Case for Virtuous Capitalism of what Pope Francis has said about capitalism is of some interest.

Defending Capitalism. In his op-ed, Timothy make this strong statement in capitalism’s defense:

… the answer to problems with the free market is not to reject economic liberty in favor of government control. The church has consistently rejected coercive systems of socialism and collectivism, because they violate inherent human rights to economic freedom and private property. When properly regulated, a free market can certainly foster greater productivity and prosperity.

And he writes that “The spread of the free market has undoubtedly led to a tremendous increase in overall wealth and well-being around the world.” Further, “One does not have to subscribe uncritically to the notion that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ to acknowledge that all people, including the poor, benefit from a general increase in the overall wealth of society.”

Why then does capitalism often have a bad name, and why does Pope Francis sometimes sound as if he is speaking against Capitalism? Timothy writes:

… what many people around the world experience as “capitalism” isn’t recognizable to Americans. For many in developing or newly industrialized countries, what passes as capitalism is an exploitative racket for the benefit of the few powerful and wealthy. Americans must remember that the holy father is speaking to this world-wide audience.

In other words, it isn’t American capitalism that is the problem, it is what passes for “capitalism” in countries that have not yet fully passed the acid test of true capitalism: making the people of a country rich, at least on average.

In this passage, Timothy even sounds like an economic libertarian:

The church believes that prosperity and earthly blessings can be a good thing, gifts from God for our well-being and the common good. It is part of human nature to work and produce, and everyone has the natural right to economic initiative and to enjoy the fruits of their labors.

But this should not be overinterpreted, since he also writes “abundance is for the benefit of all people” and

Fortunately, few people subscribe to an inhumane philosophy of radical economic individualism, and even fewer consider the “Wolf of Wall Street” to be a good role model.

The Duty to Take Care of the Poor. Timothy condemns fraud, which I hope even the most ardent apologist for unfettered capitalism would not try to justify. Beyond that, to the extent capitalism needs to be tempered, it is in order to take care of the poor and downtrodden, something that is also a central Supply-Side Liberal imperative, as I recently wrote in my second anniversary post “Three Revolutions." Timothy states the imperative of taking care of the poor and downtrodden in these three passages:

1. … Pope Francis is certainly correct that "an important part of humanity does not share in the benefits of progress.” Far too many people live in poverty and have few opportunities to achieve prosperity. And so the pope, and many others, are deeply concerned about the development of a “throwaway culture,” an “economy of exclusion” and a “culture of death” that corrode human dignity and marginalize the poor.

It is in this context that the holy father’s earlier criticism of “trickle-down economics” can be properly understood.

2. But the church certainly disapproves of any system of unregulated economic amorality, which leaves people at the mercy of impersonal market forces, where they have no choice but to sink, swim or be left with the scraps that fall from the table. That kind of environment produces the evils of greed, envy, fraud, misuse of riches, gross luxury and exploitation of the poor and the laborer.

3. The great Renaissance humanist Erasmus once said, “He does not sail badly who steers a middle course.” This advice would be well worth keeping in mind. By maintaining a sound middle course on economic issues, Pope Francis is able to remind us that free economic activity should indeed be pursued, but the human dignity of our needy brothers and sisters must always be at the center of our attention.

Minimizing the Need for Government Control by Realizing that Most People Do Care, and Can Be Encouraged to Care More. If government control is not the answer, then how will the poor be taken care of? Timothy emphasizes the kind of altruism that motivates voluntary efforts to help the poor. He is not clear about when a failure of individual altruism to take care of the poor would justify government intervention. My answer is a public contribution system that insists that those who are well off do in fact contribute to public goods, including especially taking care of the poor, but allows individuals to choose within broad parameters exactly how they will contribute to public goods. (Ordinarily, those contributions would be made through the nonprofit sector. A few might choose to give to particular arms of the government. This is not a libertarian solution, since if someone in the relevant income range refused to make contributions–which few would–they would be taxed the equivalent amount.) I believe such a system would be much less distortionary than the equivalent in taxes because most people really do care about others. In addition to creating less distortion, and allowing for creativity (and therefore technological progress) in providing public goods, one of the great advantages of a public contribution system is that, over time, it will encourage people to strengthen their altruism and public-spiritedness. They may grumble at the requirement to contribute, but then their minds will soon turn to the choice of exactly which cause to contribute to, and many will come to love the causes they have chosen and the people they are able to help with their contributions.

Although I am much too small a fish for Timothy to be likely to take any notice of my proposal without support from heavier hitters, I hope that if he did become aware of it, that he would favor the kind of public contribution system I am advocating. Although direct contributions to churches would not be part of this system, associated humanitarian organizations, such as Catholic Relief Services, would be included (with the usual fights about whether church-associated humanitarian organizations are pushing religion too much in the course of their humanitarian activities). I believe that a public contribution system would do a lot to foster exactly the kind of virtues that Timothy calls for. I want you to consider that as you read these passages:

1. From media reports, one might think that the only thing on the pope’s mind was government redistribution of property, as if he were denouncing capitalism and endorsing some form of socialism. This is unfortunate, because it overlooks the principal focus of Pope Francis’ economic teaching—that economic and social activity must be based on the virtues of compassion and generosity.

2. … as the pope continually emphasizes, the essential element is genuine human virtue.

3. The church has long taught that the value of any economic system rests on the personal virtue of the individuals who take part in it, and on the morality of their day-to-day decisions. Business can be a noble vocation, so long as those engaged in it also serve the common good, acting with a sense of generosity in addition to self-interest.

4. … Pope Francis recalled the story of Zacchaeus, in which Jesus inspires the repentant tax collector to make a radical decision to put his economic wealth at the service of others. This reminds us that a spirit of sharing and solidarity with others, in the words of Francis, “should be at the beginning and end of all political and economic activity."

In his final paragraph, which I will not quote here, Timothy loses focus. To summarize the message I want to get across, I instead like Timothy’s third-to-last paragraph:

In other words, virtuous people, acting justly, compassionately and honestly, are the foundation of good economic or business activity that can produce prosperity for all, and not just for a few.

Matthijs Lof and Tuomas Malinen: The Growth and Sovereign Debt Correlation

It is close to the anniversary of the revelations of problems in the Reinhart and Rogoff data, which also inspired many substantive reanalyses. The article linked above cites my column with Yichuan Wang, “After Crunching Reinhart and Rogoff’s Data, We Found No Evidence High Debt Slows Growth.” For more links, see my followup column with Yichuan: “Examining the Entrails: Is There Any Evidence for an Effect of Debt on Growth in the Reinhart and Rogoff Data?”

See also Salim Furth’s article “Reinhart, Rogoff and the Spreadsheet Error a Year Later,” noting how few economists seem to have publicly admitted to changing their minds. In a tweet, Salim specifically exempts me from that criticism, in view of my column “An Economist’s Mea Culpa: I Relied on Reinhart and Rogoff” and my work with Yichuan, inspired in part by my chagrin at my mistake.

Capital Budgeting: The Powerpoint File

blog.supplysideliberal.com tumblr_inline_n5ngk0597z1r57lmx.jpg

Writing “One of the Biggest Threats to America’s Future Has the Easiest Fix” with Noah Smith about capital budgeting inspired the seminar presentation I am giving today at the Congressional Budget Office, Here is a link to my Powerpoint file for the presentation:

The Applied Theory of Capital Budgeting

It is quite technical, and is a work in progress. If you do want to brave it, I recommend that you first read "One of the Biggest Threats to America’s Future Has the Easiest Fix.“

Update: I learned today that the Congressional Budget Office put out a document on "Capital Budgeting” in 2008. I hope they now put out a new document on capital budgeting!

Quartz #46—>One of the Biggest Threats to America's Future Has the Easiest Fix

Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 46th Quartz column, coauthored with Noah Smith, “One of the biggest threats to America’s future has the easiest fix,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. (I expect Noah will post it on his blog Noahpinionas well.) It was first published on February 4, 2014. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

Writing this column inspired a presentation on capital budgeting I gave at the Congressional Budget Office. See my post “Capital Budgeting: The Powerpoint File.”

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© February 4, 2014: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2015. All rights reserved.

Noah has agreed to allow mirroring of our joint columns on the same terms as I do, after they are posted here.

I talked about some of the issues of capital budgeting addressed in this column a while back in my post “What to Do When the World Desperately Wants to Lend Us Money” and Noah has talked about the importance of infrastructure investment a great deal on his blog .

Other Threats to America’s Future: Our editor wanted to title the column “The biggest threat to America’s future has the easiest fix.” I objected that I didn’t think it was the very biggest threat to America’s future. I worry about nuclear proliferation. Short of that, I believe the biggest threat to America’s future is letting China surpass America in total GDP and ultimately military might by not opening our doors wider to immigration—a threat I discuss in my column “Benjamin Franklin’s Strategy to Make the US a Superpower Worked Once, Why Not Try It Again?”


In the 1990s, with its economy stagnating after a financial crisis, Japan lavished billions on infrastructure investment. The Japanese government lined rivers and beaches with concrete, turned parks into parking lots, and built bridges to nowhere. The splurge of spending may have allowed Japan to limp along without a full-blown depression, but added to the mountain of government debt that remains to this day.

Given Japan’s experience, it may seem odd for us to call for an increase in America’s infrastructure investment. In terms of infrastructure, the US now is not Japan in the 1990s. They didn’t need to build … but we do.

First, the United States is a lot larger than Japan, and larger than the densely populated countries of Europe. We have a lot more ground to cover with highways, bridges, power lines, and broadband infrastructure. We need to be spending a higher fraction of our GDP on these transportation and communication links—but instead, we spend about the same or less.

Second, where Japan’s infrastructure was in good condition when the spending binge started, America’s infrastructure is in hideous disrepair. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives America’s infrastructure a “D+”. Although infrastructure opponents typically dismiss the opinions of civil engineers (who, after all, stand to personally gain from increased infrastructure spending), McKinsey released a recent report saying much the same thing. McKinsey notes that Japan is spending about twice as much as it needs to on infrastructure. But the US is spending only about three-fourths of what we should be spending. The Associated Press piles on, saying that 65,000 American bridges are “structurally deficient.” A former secretary of energy says our power grid is at “Third World” levels. The list of infrastructure woes goes on, and on, and on.

This is not the picture of a country with a healthy infrastructure.

We need to rebuild our infrastructure, and now is the perfect time to do it. Interest rates are at historic lows, but they are unlikely to stay there forever. Our government has a unique opportunity to borrow cheaply to fund infrastructure projects that will generate a positive return for the country. (If the increased spending acts as a Keynesian “stimulus,” so much the better.)

But infrastructure budgets have been cut, not expanded. Why? One reason is that in the race to cut the deficit, infrastructure spending has been lumped in with other types of spending. That is a tragic mistake. Unlike government “transfers,” which simply take money from person A and give it to person B, infrastructure leaves us with something that helps the private sector do business, and thus boosts our GDP growth. Infrastructure is a small percentage of overall federal spending, but tends to be a politically easy target.

One idea to boost infrastructure spending, therefore, is to treat government investments differently from other kinds of government spending by having a separate capital budget.  A separate capital budget has been suggested, but so far, the effort has foundered. There is a lot of confusion over which types of spending represent an “investment in the future.” Some politicians tend to argue that almost anything that helps people is an investment in the future, and so is a legitimate part of a capital budget. But of course everything in the government’s budget is something that someone thinks will help people!  So what is needed is a clear criterion to determine what should be in the capital budget and what should be in the regular budget.

There should be a fairly stringent set of criteria for what belongs in a capital budget. Furthermore, these criteria should appeal to both parties. Here is what we suggest as criteria to keep the capital budget “pure”:

1.     If experts agree that an expenditure will raise future tax revenue by increasing GDP, then it belongs in the capital budget. If it can pay for itself entirely out of extra tax revenue in the future then it should be 100% on the capital budget. If it can pay for half of its cost out of extra tax revenue in the future, than it should be 50% on the capital budget. The provision “experts agree” requires some sort of independent commission doing an economic analysis with appointees from both parties, and with, say, two-thirds of the commissioners needing to agree that the value of future tax revenue is likely to be above a given level.

2.     Even if an expenditure will not raise future tax revenue, it can count as a capital expenditure if it is a one-time expenditure—that is, if it makes sense to have a surge in spending followed by a much lower maintenance level of spending in that area. This will only be true if it pushes the existing stock of infrastructure, other government capital, or knowledge to a higher level than before, not if it just keeps things even. Crucially, by this logic, anything that lets the stock of infrastructure or other government capital decline would count as anegative capital expenditure. This principle enables the capital budget accounting to sound a warning when the nation is letting its infrastructure crumble away, and also allows sensible decisions about shifting funds from older forms of infrastructure toward modern forms of infrastructure needed by a fast-moving economy.

As our mention of the stock of knowledge suggests, a capital budget can also be a good way to make sure that America doesn’t underinvest in basic scientific research. However great the importance of better roads and bridges, it makes sense to weigh the benefits of those roads and bridges against the benefits of research that might someday conquer Alzheimer’s disease, or research on how to make the way math is taught in our public schools so exciting that every high school graduate in America is able to do the math needed to, say, operate computerized machine tools.

With proposals like these on the table, we believe there is a chance that Republicans and Democrats could agree to set infrastructure and other legitimate capital spending aside as an issue that should not be a victim of titanic political battles over the deficit. Of course, someday, if we find ourselves in Japan’s position of spending so much on infrastructure that it starts adding significant amounts to the debt, then the capital budget should become an issue in deficit fights as well. But we are far from that point.

Both Republicans and Democrats want to govern a country that is as rich and prosperous as possible. America’s businesses need good infrastructure to move their goods from place to place—and there is no question that we need the solid new ideas that research can provide. Economists of all stripes will agree that if a nation is under-spending on infrastructure and other legitimate capital spending—as America is right now —then boosting that spending is a win-win. It’s time to look beyond our fights over how to divide America’s pie, and focus on making the pie bigger.


Technical Afterword

There is a very interesting feature to our proposed capital budgeting system that we should highlight. How can the capital budget ever be negative? The capital budget plus the non-capital budget must add up to the total budget. So for a given total budget, a negative capital budget makes the non-capital budget bigger. What is going on is this: regular maintenance is like a quasi-entitlement within the non-capital budget. In any given year, regular maintenance as a component of the non-capital budget is fixed in advance and can’t be altered by the legislature. The only way it changes is that it is gradually reduced if the quantity of capital to be maintained gets lower, or gradually increased if the amount of capital to be maintained gets bigger.

In this lack of discretion about regular maintenance as a component of the non-capital budget, there is no real tying of the hands of the legislature: they could always choose to have a very negative capital budget, which would increase the non-capital budget enough to cover that maintenance. So if the legislature as a whole acted like a fully rational actor, this principle is not a constraint at all. But as political economy, it makes a difference, and a good one. The legislature can increase the non-capital budget and reduce the capital budget. But what the legislature can’t do is get more funds for other things by letting capital decay without it showing up in the accounting as an increase in the regular budget and reduction in the capital budget.

On these technical issues, see also

Josh Barro: We Need a New Supply Side Economics—Here Are 8 Things We Can Do

 

Noah Smith and Christopher Cordeiro tweeted that Josh Barro’s column “We Need A New Supply Side Economics — Here Are 8 Things We Can Do” sounded like ideas I would favor. They are right. 

I fully agree with Josh’s lead-in:

Demand stimulation remains the right goal today, but it’s not going to be the right goal forever. …

We’re going to need a new supply side economics that encourages people to work, invest and innovate.

Some of Josh’s proposals cost money, for which he proposes more progressive income taxes as a revenue source (as his 8th point). I have proposed tapping the resources of the rich in a different way. I want to  finance an expansion of the nonprofit sector (see the links in “The Red Banker on Supply-Side Liberalism”). To get there politically, I enunciated the principle of “No Tax Increase Without Recompense.” So I cannot go along with Josh’s proposal raise income taxes at the upper end in a conventional way. (Also see the Twitter discussions “Daniel Altman and Miles Kimball: Should We Expand Government or Expand the Nonprofit Sector?” and “Daniel Altman and Miles Kimball: Is It OK to Let the Rich Be Rich As Long As We Take Care of the Poor?”) The expansion of the nonprofit sector that I propose will help the poor tremendously in many ways beyond the dimension Josh is focuses on.

More generally, I think it is better to build progressivity into the spending side of the government’s activities–including transfers–than into the tax side. Instead, I think Josh’s proposed enhancements of programs to direct more resources toward the poor can also serve as ways to compensate the poor for increases in increases in taxes on externalities such as carbon dioxide emissions and the consumption of soft drinks and junk food that affect the behavior of all those around us through not-fully-conscious social influences

Here is Josh’s list, minus the income tax increase, with my comments:

1. Invest in smart infrastructure, ideally without building much.

Yes! Noah and I have an column on infrastructure investment. And I agree with Josh that it is a bad habit to get into to think of infrastructure investment as a demand-side thing. We need to keep in our sights getting supply-side benefits from the infrastructure investments that we make. 

I would emphasize government support for basic research in the same breath as infrastructure investment. Indeed, I think there is even more supply-side benefit to be had from government support for basic research than from additional infrastructure investment. 

2. Reform means-tested entitlements without soaking the poor.

Josh wants to phase out aid to the poor more slowly with higher income, in order to avoid discouraging people from working hard and avoid discouraging people from building their careers through education and other means. This is great, but it will cost the government more money. I would like to reward healthy eating and not contributing too much to global warming across the whole population, as well as rewarding the poor for working hard and getting an education. That combination can finance itself.    

3. Move the deregulatory agenda down to the state and local level.

This is one of Josh’s points that I think needs to be shouted from the rooftops. Here is the full text of what he said on this point:

In the 1970s, the big deregulation fights were properly at the federal level. Then the government deregulated airlines and trucking. Though technological change, regulation has become less important in broadcasting and telecommunications. Bank deregulation has been a mixed bag over this period; people talk about it as a cautionary tale, but some of the deregulations (such as ending the limit on savings account interest and allowing interstate banking) have served consumers very well.

The big federal regulatory fights that remain are in mostly areas where the federal government properly uses a heavy hand: banking and securities, and environmental protection.

The next round of big deregulation fights should be at the state and local level. Governments impose pro-incumbent regulations on a variety of industries from barbering to interior design to medicine to restaurants. These rules raise incomes for existing practitioners, but they make it difficult for new practitioners to enter the fields, and they raise consumer prices.

State and local governments should stop doing this.

In the interest of promoting interstate commerce, the federal government should pre-empt many of these regulations. For example, states should be forced to allow a broad scope of practice for nurse practitioners so they can serve as independent primary care providers. This would reduce doctors’ incomes, but it would reduce the cost of health care, raise patients’ real incomes and help to control government expenditure.

What I have said on this topic can be found in my post

4. Deregulate America’s most overregulated industry: real estate.

Here, Josh is on the same side as Matthew Yglesias, who wrote the book on this issue: The Rent is Too Damn High. I am part of the cheering section for their efforts. Given the fraction of household budgets spent on housing, this is a huge issue.  

5. Reform intellectual property — by weakening it.

I endorse this idea in my link post “The Wonderful, Now Suppressed, Republican Study Committee Brief on Copyright Law.” I also muse on how much protection is necessary in my post “Copyright.” Wonderful, amazing new things will happen if we shift to less restrictive intellectual property rules. And if we overshoot in a way that undercompensates creators, that can easily be fixed later. It is high time we experimented with more fluid rules. 

Given the pace of innovation and the rate at which things become obsolete, one change that almost certainly a winner is to shorten the term for patents and copyrights. The only place this seems problematic is in retaining adequate incentives for the development of new drugs. There, combining a shorter period of exclusivity with the government paying for half of the cost of drug trials would probably keep just as much innovation while still helping the government budget, since the government pays for drugs as part of Medicare now.  

6. Improve education, somehow.

I have written a fair amount about education. Improving education will be an ongoing theme for me. Here is a link to my sub-blog on education, and here are some of the most important posts:

7. Admit more high-skill immigrants.

More open borders is something I am passionate about. But I would not limit it to high-skill immigrants. Helping the poor who are currently in other countries is also important. Here are some of my more important posts in that vein:

The Red Banker on Supply-Side Liberalism

Icon for the Red Banker blog (which also appears in Wikipedia article on the “Commercial Revolution”)

Icon for the Red Banker blog (which also appears in Wikipedia article on the “Commercial Revolution”)

Frederic Mari blogs as the Red Banker. He gives a positive take on my first post “What is a Supply-Side Liberal?” in his post “Supply Side Liberalism: The Interesting Case of Dr. Kimball and Mr. Miles.” However, Frederic questions whether limited government is politically possible, saying

People oppose government spending but support all of its public good provision.

Here I wished he had discussed my central proposal for keeping the burden of taxation down while providing abundant public goods: a public contribution system that raises taxes rates, but lets people avoid 100% of the extra taxes by making charitable donations focused on doing things the government might otherwise have to do. These two posts lay out how a public contribution system would work: 

Also, my post 

is best understood in this context.

I discuss a few other ideas for how to reduce the burden of taxation based on the ways in which human psychology departs from over-simplified views of homo economicus in this popular post: 

The bottom line is this: In my book, it isn’t Supply-Side Liberalism without a serious effort to lower the burden of taxation for any given level of revenue, using everything we know about human nature.

GiveWell: Top Charities

In my post “Inequality Aversion Utility Functions: Would $1000 Mean More to a Poorer Family than $4000 to One Twice as Rich?” I use math and survey data on inequality aversion to argue that the big gains from redistribution are from taking care of the desperately poor. GiveWell is a website that rates charities in a way consistent with that criterion. Take a look. 

I learned about GiveWell from Michael Huemer’s excellent book The Problem of Political Authority.

An Experiment with Equality of Outcome: The Case of Jamestown

This passage is from Michael Huemer’s wonderful book The Problem of Political Authority, pages 192-194. 


Take the case of a social theory proposing that all citizens should work for the benefit of society, while receiving equal pay. A simple theoretical prediction is that, in such a system, productivity will decline. Individuals have a high degree of control over their own productivity, and greater productivity usually demands greater effort….

This prediction is in fact correct. The twentieth century’s experiments with social systems in this vicinity are well-known, so I shall not dwell on them. An interesting, but little-known illustration is provided by America’s first experiment with communism, which took place at Jamestown, the first permanent English settlement in America. When the colony was established in 1607, its founding charter stipulated that each colonist would be entitled to an equal share of the colony’s product, regardless of how much that individual personally produced. The result: the colonists did little work, and little food was produced. Of the 104 founding colonists, two-thirds died in the first year–partly due to unclean water, but mostly due to starvation. More colonists arrived from England, so that in 1609 there were 500 colonists. Of those, only 60 survived the winter of 1609-10. In 1611, England sent a new governor, Sir Thomas Dale, who found the skeletal colonists bowling in the streets instead of working. Their main source of food was wild plants and animals, which they gathered secretely at night so as to evade the obligation to share with their neighbors. Dale later converted the colony to a system based on private property, granting every colonist a three-acre plot to tend for his own individual benefit. The result was a dramatic increase in production. According to Captain John Smith’s contemporaneous history,

When our people were fed out of the common store and labored jointly together, glad was he [who] could slip from his labor or slumber over his task, he care not how; nay, the most honest among them would hardly take so much true pains in a week as now for themselves they will do in a day … so that we reaped not so much corn from the labors of thirty, as now three or four do provide themselves.

One lesson from this episode is that, simple as the account of human nature I have advanced is, it can yield very useful predictions. If the company that created the Jamestown charter had known a little economics, hundreds of lives might have been spared. Another is that the impact of human selfishness depends greatly on the social system in which people are embedded: in one kind of system, selfishness may have disastrous consequences, while in another, it promotes prosperity.

Miles on HuffPost Live: Barack Obama Talks about the Long Run, While We Wonder about His Pick for Fed Chief

Link to HuffPost Live segment “Back to the Economy”: Mark Gongloff, Edward G. Luce and Miles Kimball, hosted by Mike Sacks

It was a little odd having two fairly disparate topics in this HuffPost Live segment: long-run issues and who the new Fed Chief should be. Here is what I talked about:

David Byrne on Non-Monetary Motivations

As illustrated by arguments I make in my posts “Scott Adams’s Finest Hour: How to Tax the Rich” and “Copyright,” understanding the strength of non-monetary motivations for work is important for public policy. David Byrne gives a vivid description of non-monetary motivations in his line of work in this passage from his book How Music Works, pp. 203-204.

How important is getting one’s work out to the public? Should that even matter to a creative artist? Would I make music if no one were listening? If I were a hermit and lived on a mountaintop like a bearded guy in a cartoon, would I take the time to write a song? Many visual artists whose work I love–like Henry Darger, Gordon Carter, and James Castle–never shared their art. They worked ceaselessly and hoarded their creations, which were discovered only after they died or moved out of their apartments. Could I do that? Why would I? Don’t we want some validation, respect, feedback? Come to think of it, I might do it–in fact, I did, when I was in high school puttering around with those tape loops and splicing. I think those experiments were witnessed by exactly one friend. However, even an audience of one is not zero. 

Still, making music is its own reward. It feels good and can be a therapeutic outlet; maybe that’s why so many people work hard in music for no money or public recognition at all. In Ireland and elsewhere, amateurs play well-known songs in pubs, and their ambition doesn’t stretch beyond the door. They are getting recognition (or humiliation) within their village, though. 

In North America, families used to gather around the piano in the parlor. Any monetary remuneration that might have accrued from these “concerts” was secondary. To be honest, even tooling around with tapes in high school, I think I imagined that someone, somehow, might hear my music one day. Maybe not those particular experiments, but I imagined that they might be the baby steps that would allow my more mature expressions to come into being and eventually reach others. Could I have unconsciously had such a long-range plan? I have continued to make plenty of music, often with no clear goal in sight, but I guess somewhere in the back of my mind I believe that the aimless wandering down a meandering path will surely lead to some (well-deserved, in my mind) reward down the road. There’s a kind of unjustified faith involved here. 

Is the satisfaction that comes from public recognition–however small, however fleeting–a driving force for the creative act? I am going to assume that most of us who make music (or pursue other create endeavors) do indeed dream that someday someone else will hear, see, or read what we’ve made.

For balance, I should point out that in the paragraph after this passage, David writes of monetary motivations as well:

Many of us who do seek validation dream that we will not only have that dialogue with our peers and the public, but that we might even be compensated for our creative efforts, which is another kind of validation. We’re not talking rich and famous; making a life with one’s work is enough. 

But notice that in David’s description, even the monetary motivation has two dimensions: enabling consumption and validation.

Quartz #14—>Off the Rails: How to Get the Recovery Back on Track

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Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 14th Quartz column, “Off the Rails: What the heck is happening to the US Economy? How to get the recovery back on track,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on February 1, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© February 1, 2013: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2014. All rights reserved.


GDP fell in the last quarter of 2012. It was only a fraction of a percent, but it means the recovery is on hiatus. Why? Negative inventory adjustments tend to be short-lived, so let me leave that aside, although it definitely made last quarter’s statistics look worse. Of the longer-lived forces, on the positive side,

  • consumer spending rose,
  • home-building rose, and
  • business investment on buildings and equipment rose.

On the negative side,

  • exports fell more than imports, and
  • government purchases fell.

Net exports and government purchases are the big worries going forward as well.

How much the rest of the world buys from the US depends on how other economies are faring. And most of the rest of the world is hurting economically. The Japanese are so fed up with their economic situation that they are on their sixth prime minister in the six and a half years since Junichiro Koizumi left office in 2006.  The European debt crisis is in a lull right now, but could still resume full force at any time. In addition to all of its other problems, the United Kingdom is facing a mysterious decline in productivity, explained in Martin Wolf’s Financial Times article “Puzzle of Falling UK Labour Productivity” and the Bank of England analysis by Abigail Hughes and Jumana Saleheen.

The decline in US government spending comes from the struggle of state and local governments with their budgets and at the federal level from the ongoing struggle between the Democrats and Republicans about the long-run future of taxing and spending. Last quarter saw a remarkable decline in military spending that Josh Mitchell explains this way in today’s Wall Street Journal (paywall).

The biggest cuts came in military spending, which tumbled at a rate of 22.2%, the largest drop since 1972. …

Military analysts said the decline likely was a result of pressure on the Pentagon from a number of areas.

Among them: reductions in spending on the war in Afghanistan as it winds down, a downturn in planned military spending, a constraint placed on the Pentagon budget because the federal government is operating on short-term resolutions that limit spending growth, as well as concern that further cuts may be in the pipeline.

The problem is that, absent a big increase in economic growth, balancing the federal budget in the long run requires big increases in taxes or big reductions in spending. But, although opinions differ on which option is worse, tax increases and spending cuts themselves are enemies of economic growth. So the traditional options for balancing the federal budget in the long run all have the potential to make things much worse.

Our problems are so big they need new solutions. In our current situation, the fact that a proposal is “untried” is a plus, since none of the economic approaches we have tried lately have worked very well. In the last few months I have focused my Quartz columns on explaining how the US and the world can get out of the economic mess we are in with new solutions. A recap:

  1. One of the new solutions is really an old one, that Congress and the President might be timidly tiptoeing toward too little of: dramatically more open immigration. Done right, this is guaranteed to add to long-run economic growth, as more workers make more goods, perform more services, and contribute to solving our long-run budget problems. And it isn’t just the US that would benefit from more open immigration. Ryan Avent has a must-read article in The Economist arguing that “Liberalising migration could deliver a huge boost to global output.”
  2. The long-run budget can be balanced in a way that achieves both the core Republican goals of holding down the size of government and the burden of taxation and the core Democratic goal of taking care of the poor, sick and elderly. Here is how: by using the tax system to back up a program of public contributions to expand the non-profit sector instead of taxes and spending to expand government, or brutal cuts with no compensating way to take care of those in need.
  3. For stimulating the economy, the one current approach that has been working at least halfway is “quantitative easing”: the Fed’s large purchases of long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. But quantitative easing is hugely controversial and has an unfortunate side effect of making our long-run government debt problem worse than if we could stimulate the economy some other way. Establishing a US Sovereign Wealth Fund to do the purchasing of long-term and risky assets would give the Fed room to maneuver in monetary policy, and restrict its job to steering the economy rather than making controversial portfolio investment decisions. And a US Sovereign Wealth Fund could stand as a bulwark against wild swings in financial markets. (In addition to the column linked above, I spoke on CNBC’s Squawkbox about a US Sovereign Wealth Fund.)
  4. Although valuable, a US Sovereign Wealth Fund is a poor second best to electronic money. It is the fear of massive storage of paper currency that prevents the US Federal Reserve and other central banks from cutting short-term rates as far below zero as necessary to bring full recovery. (If electronic dollars, yen, euros and pounds are treated as “the real thing”—the yardsticks for prices and contracts—it is OK for people to continue using paper currency as they do now, as long as the value of paper money relative to electronic money goes down fast enough to keep people from storing large amounts of paper money as a way of circumventing negative interest rates on bank accounts.)  As I argued in “Could the UK be the first country to adopt electronic money,” the low interest rates that electronic money allows would stimulate not only business investment and home building, but exports as well—something that would lead to a virtuous domino effect as the adoption of an electronic money standard by one country led to its adoption by others to avoid trade deficits. If I were writing that column now, I would be asking if Japan could be the first country to adopt electronic money, since Japan’s new prime minister Shinzo Abe is calling for a new direction in monetary policy. For the Euro zone, I argue in “How the electronic deutsche mark can save Europe” that electronic money is not only the way to achieve full recovery, but the solution to its debt crisis as well.
  5. Finally, if electronic money is too radical, the government can stimulate the economy without adding too much to the national debt by giving consumers extra borrowing-power with a government-issued credit card and a $2,000 credit limit to every taxpayer. These Federal Lines of Credit would stimulate the economy at a fraction of the cost of tax rebates. This is a big advantage for countries deep in debt, which includes most major economies. And Lines of Credit are an affordable way to stimulate the economies of European countries such as Spain and Italy that lack an independent monetary policy because they share the euro with many other European countries.

Franklin Roosevelt famously said:

The country needs and, unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.

We are at such a moment again. The usual remedies have failed. It is time to try something new. Any one of these proposals could make a major difference. In combination, they would transform the world.

Quartz #12—>Yes, There is an Alternative to Austerity vs. Spending: Reinvigorate America's Nonprofits

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Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 12th Quartz column, “Yes, there is an alternative to austerity vs. spending: Reinvigorate America’s nonprofits,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on January 15, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© January 15, 2013: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2014. All rights reserved.


Despite serving only one term from 1989-1993, US President George H. W. Bush (just released from the hospital yesterday after a bout of fever and other complications) has cast a long shadow over subsequent events. His decision to leave Saddam Hussein in place after the First Iraq War led to his son’s immensely controversial Second Iraq War. And the negative reaction to his decision to compromise with Democrats in raising taxes in 1990 despite his pledge “Read my lips, no new taxes” has set the terms of the tax policy debate ever since. Tax reformer Grover Norquist codified the principle of “no new taxes” into the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, which goes as follows:

I, ____ pledge to the taxpayers of the state of ____, and to the American people that I will:

ONE, oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates for individuals and/or businesses; and

TWO, oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates.

Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner made a nod toward this pledge two weeks ago, pushing for the temporary resolution of the fiscal cliff, when he reminded his rank and file that, technically, taxes had already gone up, due to the expiration of the younger Bush’s tax cuts at year end. The implication was that members of Congress would really be voting for a tax cut, not a tax increase, and so would not be breaking their pledge. There is no doubt that this matter of interpretation will feature prominently in the GOP primaries in 2014.

The ongoing crisis in long-run US taxing and spending policy is born from the collision of an almost unstoppable force on the spending side with Grover Norquist’s almost immovable object on the taxing side. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers ably describes the almost unstoppable force on the spending side in his Washington Post editorial “The Reality of Trying to Shrink Government.” The bottom line is that the explosion of government spending is primarily the result of (1) an aging population, (2) having to pay interest on ballooning government debt, and (3) the increasing cost of medicine that keeps discovering ways to do more with the expensive skilled labor of doctors and other medical professionals. To put it bluntly, the only way to keep government spending constant in the future, let alone reduce it, would be to dramatically reduce benefit levels for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, or to gut all the other functions of government, from national defense to the judicial system to scientific research.

It is easy to be misunderstood when mentioning Hitler, but here I want to invoke a comparison solely in his role as an inept commander-in-chief of the German armed forces and in no other capacity. In his book, The Storm of War: A New History of the Second World War, Andrew Roberts argues that Hitler’s no-retreat, “stand-or-die” orders were strategically disastrous for the German forces. German generals had a brilliant record at turning tactical retreats into great German victories. But Hitler’s stand-or-die orders took away the advantage of maneuver and left German troops to be mowed down by the Russians under Stalin. My point is that the “stand-or-die” approach is likely to do no better against the spending juggernaut than it did against Stalin.

In our long-run fiscal situation, the alternatives (of which we may need more than one) are to convince the American people to swallow straight benefit cuts, to directly raise tax rates, to grow the economy to get more revenue through:

1. Increased immigration, done in a way that focuses on economic growth, as I discussed in a previous Quartz piece entitled “Obama could really help the US economy by pushing for more legal immigration”

2. A more efficient tax system that encourages capital formation, as discussed in my “Twitter Round Table on Consumption Taxation

3. A big push for increased scientific research to accelerate technological progress

But then what? I propose that many of the jobs the government has set for itself actually be done outside the government, by the non-profit sector.

In my recent blog post “No Tax Increase Without Recompense” (there’s a cliff notes version here), I propose a “public contribution system” that goes far beyond the current tax deduction for charitable contributions. In this program:

A public contribution is a donation to a nonprofit organization meeting high quality standards that engages in activities that (a) could be legitimate, high-priority activities of Federal or State governments and (b) can to an important extent substitute for spending these governments would otherwise be likely to do.

My proposal is to raise marginal tax rates above about $75,000 per person—or $150,000 per couple—by 10% (a dime on every extra dollar), but offer a 100% tax credit for public contributions up to the entire amount of the tax surcharge.

In addition to helping the government budget by taking over tasks the government is now doing and by reducing revenue lost to the current charitable deduction, I believe the non-profit sector (with the usual level of regulation) can do many things better than the government, and this program would be much less painful for people than paying the same amount in taxes. It is easy to find fulfillment in philanthropy. There is satisfaction in knowing one has made a difference in the world, in a way of one’s own choosing. And giving can serve as a good opportunity for teaching children to care. No doubt, some would view these contributions to charitable causes as almost as onerous as the taxes to which they would be an alternative. But I don’t think that would be the typical reaction.

Many people talk as if taxes are hateful only because the government is taking our money. But taxes are also hateful because the government is arrogating to itself the choice of what should be done with the money it takes from us. The government is jealous of its power. But let us insist that any resolution of our long-run fiscal crisis reduces, rather than adds to, government power. We do need to take care of those who are poor, sick and elderly. A program of public contributions shrinks government, while getting the job done. And it would be a fitting honor for George H. W. Bush, who said movingly in his inaugural address:

I have spoken of a thousand points of light, of all the community organizations that are spread like stars throughout the Nation, doing good… . The old ideas are new again because they are not old, they are timeless: duty, sacrifice, commitment, and a patriotism that finds its expression in taking part and pitching in.

Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, Robert Pollin and Mike Konczal: Researchers Finally Had a Chance to Replicate Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems.

I thought it important to put this up right away, since I have referenced the correlations in the Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart and Ken Rogoff paper “Debt Overhangs, Past and Present.” It is likely that the later paper I relied on has some of the same problems as the earlier paper that Mike Konczal discusses based on Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin’s paper “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,” In particular, I would like to know how the figures from “Debt Overhangs, Past and Present,” that I copied over in my post “Noah Smith Joins My Debate with Paul Krugman: Debt, National Lines of Credit, and Politics” are affected by the emendations of Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin. I would be grateful for any help in figuring this out. 

Why Austerity Budgets Won't Save Your Economy

Here is a link to my 20th column on Quartz: “Why Austerity Budgets Won’t Save Your Economy.”

The link has the abbreviated title “Austerity is Bad Economic Policy”:

http://qz.com/69302/austerity-is-bad-economic-policy/

To interpret that abbreviated title, let me claim that austerity plus electronic money is so dramatically different from austerity alone, that it would not be called “austerity."

Quartz #6—>Obama Could Really Help the US Economy by Pushing for More Legal Immigration

Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 6th Quartz column, “Second Act: Obama could really help the US economy by pushing for more legal immigration,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. This column was first published on November 7, 2012. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© November 7, 2012: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2014. All rights reserved.


It’s time for US President Barack Obama to think big. Syria’s civil war and Iran’s nuclear capability will continue to give the president plenty of opportunities to make his mark on history in foreign affairs. But the hope of any further major achievement in domestic policy will have to overcome two hard realities: Republican control of the House of Representatives and aging Americans’ effect on the federal budget.

What the president needs is some form of political jujitsu that also solves the country’s long-term budget problems. Meanwhile, one of the biggest messages for Republicans from this election is that their electoral prospects hinge on bringing a larger fraction of Hispanics into the GOP fold. So immigration is an issue that puts them in a box: either they play ball, or they get tarred further as the anti-immigration party, which is politically deadly.

Now is the perfect time for the president to tackle immigration reform. He already has put immigration reform on the agenda, but there is a danger that he will think too small and miss the potential of the right kind of immigration reform to strengthen the economy and shore up the long-run government budget. But the key to the economic and budgetary magic of immigration reform is to dramatically increase the level of legal immigration allowed each year.

Let me be concrete by suggesting an increase of 1 million legal immigrants per year for the next 30 years. If the immigration reform is designed specifically to help the economy, here is what it can do.

First, it can work wonders for the long-run solvency of Social Security and Medicare by increasing the number of young people paying relative to older people receiving benefits.

Second, it can bring in large numbers of highly educated and highly skilled immigrants who can keep the United States at the cutting edge of technical progress.

Third, it keeps America a melting pot while giving it a competitive advantage in the global economy.

Fourth, in general, a group’s wages are raised by increasing the number of workers who are different from that group.

Thus, bringing in immigrants at the bottom and the top of the skill distribution will help the wages of those in the middle of the skill distribution—the middle class that the president promised to help. Additional immigration may cause a problem for native-born Americans who don’t complete high school, but the kind of education reform that will help solve that problem is already one of the president’s strong suits and something strongly supported by Republicans. Finally, since real-estate markets are forward-looking, a commitment to a large increase in legal immigration over the next 30 years would help the economy even in the short run by raising property values, so that fewer homeowners would be underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.

Done right, and done in a big way, the economic benefits of increased legal immigration are compelling. In the blogosphere, Adam Ozimek and Noah Smith have been some of the most forceful advocates. And on my own blog, I have stressed the moral case for increased legal immigration. (See my post “You Didn’t Build That: America Edition” and its follow-up.) And politically, increased legal immigration designed with the economics in mind is a wedge issue that separates the pro-business part of the Republican coalition from the culturally conservative part of that coalition.

An increase in legal immigration doesn’t solve the problem of illegal immigrants already in this country, but it will ultimately make that issue so much easier to deal with that the issue of illegal immigrants could be safely deferred, if political necessity demands (as it might, given the strong positions to which many Republicans have committed themselves against illegal immigration).

For the sake of our nation, second-term presidents—who no longer face a reelection battle—should be thinking about their place in history. Most Americans today have a positive view of the legal immigration we have had in the past since it’s how most of us got here. On the domestic front, the president has very little room to maneuver. Changing our 21st century approach to immigration is one arena where a bold move can put President Obama forever in the top tier of American presidents who have laid the foundation of American greatness.