Drew Hinshaw: Nigeria Produces Half the Electricity of North Dakota-for 249 Times More People

I have heard distressing, yet fascinating, stories from a colleague who has spent time in Africa about how folks in Africa often act like the “Homo Economicus” of our theories, but without the benefit of adequate property rights to keep things on track. One example I found vivid is the routine theft of wire from power lines in order to sell the copper. So I was interested to read Drew Hinshaw's Wall Street Journal article linked above about electricity in Nigeria. I particularly noticed these passages which help make vivid the kinds of problems that can face a poor country trying to get richer:

The quest to turn the lights back on in Nigeria is pitting some of the country’s richest men against rusted power lines, pilfered electricity and grenade-lobbing saboteurs. …

Half of Nigeria’s electricity is stolen or lost on quarter-century-old power lines. Companies have taken on the job of installing electric meters and bringing bills to the hundreds of thousands of Nigerian households that run wires to nearby electrical poles, without paying. …

Nigeria will need to lay fresh pipelines to tap its gas reserves—the world’s eighth largest—to fuel those turbines. One problem: Saboteurs lurking in the swamps keep throwing grenades under what few gas pipelines exist in an attempt to extort protection money from Nigeria’s government. …

When Mr. Elumelu’s staff first walked into the plant last November—they weren’t given access until it was purchased—they discovered technicians weren’t wearing safety goggles or even shoes. Some crawled into the innards of deadly gas turbines wearing flip flops.

Those workers had also lost track of turbine parts, rendering the massive machines unusable. All told, the station produces just 160 megawatts—half the wattage the company assumed when it bought the place.

Matt Ridley, Michelle Klein and Rob Boyd on Population Size and Technology: Why Some Islanders Build Better Crab Traps

In this ungated Wall Street Journal article, Matt Ridley gives a nice report on research by Michelle Klein and Rob Boyd on the idea that higher effective population size leads to better technology.  The important idea that higher effective population size leads to better technology is also reflected in

Quartz #46—>One of the Biggest Threats to America's Future Has the Easiest Fix

Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 46th Quartz column, coauthored with Noah Smith, “One of the biggest threats to America’s future has the easiest fix,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. (I expect Noah will post it on his blog Noahpinionas well.) It was first published on February 4, 2014. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

Writing this column inspired a presentation on capital budgeting I gave at the Congressional Budget Office. See my post “Capital Budgeting: The Powerpoint File.”

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© February 4, 2014: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2015. All rights reserved.

Noah has agreed to allow mirroring of our joint columns on the same terms as I do, after they are posted here.

I talked about some of the issues of capital budgeting addressed in this column a while back in my post “What to Do When the World Desperately Wants to Lend Us Money” and Noah has talked about the importance of infrastructure investment a great deal on his blog .

Other Threats to America’s Future: Our editor wanted to title the column “The biggest threat to America’s future has the easiest fix.” I objected that I didn’t think it was the very biggest threat to America’s future. I worry about nuclear proliferation. Short of that, I believe the biggest threat to America’s future is letting China surpass America in total GDP and ultimately military might by not opening our doors wider to immigration—a threat I discuss in my column “Benjamin Franklin’s Strategy to Make the US a Superpower Worked Once, Why Not Try It Again?”


In the 1990s, with its economy stagnating after a financial crisis, Japan lavished billions on infrastructure investment. The Japanese government lined rivers and beaches with concrete, turned parks into parking lots, and built bridges to nowhere. The splurge of spending may have allowed Japan to limp along without a full-blown depression, but added to the mountain of government debt that remains to this day.

Given Japan’s experience, it may seem odd for us to call for an increase in America’s infrastructure investment. In terms of infrastructure, the US now is not Japan in the 1990s. They didn’t need to build … but we do.

First, the United States is a lot larger than Japan, and larger than the densely populated countries of Europe. We have a lot more ground to cover with highways, bridges, power lines, and broadband infrastructure. We need to be spending a higher fraction of our GDP on these transportation and communication links—but instead, we spend about the same or less.

Second, where Japan’s infrastructure was in good condition when the spending binge started, America’s infrastructure is in hideous disrepair. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives America’s infrastructure a “D+”. Although infrastructure opponents typically dismiss the opinions of civil engineers (who, after all, stand to personally gain from increased infrastructure spending), McKinsey released a recent report saying much the same thing. McKinsey notes that Japan is spending about twice as much as it needs to on infrastructure. But the US is spending only about three-fourths of what we should be spending. The Associated Press piles on, saying that 65,000 American bridges are “structurally deficient.” A former secretary of energy says our power grid is at “Third World” levels. The list of infrastructure woes goes on, and on, and on.

This is not the picture of a country with a healthy infrastructure.

We need to rebuild our infrastructure, and now is the perfect time to do it. Interest rates are at historic lows, but they are unlikely to stay there forever. Our government has a unique opportunity to borrow cheaply to fund infrastructure projects that will generate a positive return for the country. (If the increased spending acts as a Keynesian “stimulus,” so much the better.)

But infrastructure budgets have been cut, not expanded. Why? One reason is that in the race to cut the deficit, infrastructure spending has been lumped in with other types of spending. That is a tragic mistake. Unlike government “transfers,” which simply take money from person A and give it to person B, infrastructure leaves us with something that helps the private sector do business, and thus boosts our GDP growth. Infrastructure is a small percentage of overall federal spending, but tends to be a politically easy target.

One idea to boost infrastructure spending, therefore, is to treat government investments differently from other kinds of government spending by having a separate capital budget.  A separate capital budget has been suggested, but so far, the effort has foundered. There is a lot of confusion over which types of spending represent an “investment in the future.” Some politicians tend to argue that almost anything that helps people is an investment in the future, and so is a legitimate part of a capital budget. But of course everything in the government’s budget is something that someone thinks will help people!  So what is needed is a clear criterion to determine what should be in the capital budget and what should be in the regular budget.

There should be a fairly stringent set of criteria for what belongs in a capital budget. Furthermore, these criteria should appeal to both parties. Here is what we suggest as criteria to keep the capital budget “pure”:

1.     If experts agree that an expenditure will raise future tax revenue by increasing GDP, then it belongs in the capital budget. If it can pay for itself entirely out of extra tax revenue in the future then it should be 100% on the capital budget. If it can pay for half of its cost out of extra tax revenue in the future, than it should be 50% on the capital budget. The provision “experts agree” requires some sort of independent commission doing an economic analysis with appointees from both parties, and with, say, two-thirds of the commissioners needing to agree that the value of future tax revenue is likely to be above a given level.

2.     Even if an expenditure will not raise future tax revenue, it can count as a capital expenditure if it is a one-time expenditure—that is, if it makes sense to have a surge in spending followed by a much lower maintenance level of spending in that area. This will only be true if it pushes the existing stock of infrastructure, other government capital, or knowledge to a higher level than before, not if it just keeps things even. Crucially, by this logic, anything that lets the stock of infrastructure or other government capital decline would count as anegative capital expenditure. This principle enables the capital budget accounting to sound a warning when the nation is letting its infrastructure crumble away, and also allows sensible decisions about shifting funds from older forms of infrastructure toward modern forms of infrastructure needed by a fast-moving economy.

As our mention of the stock of knowledge suggests, a capital budget can also be a good way to make sure that America doesn’t underinvest in basic scientific research. However great the importance of better roads and bridges, it makes sense to weigh the benefits of those roads and bridges against the benefits of research that might someday conquer Alzheimer’s disease, or research on how to make the way math is taught in our public schools so exciting that every high school graduate in America is able to do the math needed to, say, operate computerized machine tools.

With proposals like these on the table, we believe there is a chance that Republicans and Democrats could agree to set infrastructure and other legitimate capital spending aside as an issue that should not be a victim of titanic political battles over the deficit. Of course, someday, if we find ourselves in Japan’s position of spending so much on infrastructure that it starts adding significant amounts to the debt, then the capital budget should become an issue in deficit fights as well. But we are far from that point.

Both Republicans and Democrats want to govern a country that is as rich and prosperous as possible. America’s businesses need good infrastructure to move their goods from place to place—and there is no question that we need the solid new ideas that research can provide. Economists of all stripes will agree that if a nation is under-spending on infrastructure and other legitimate capital spending—as America is right now —then boosting that spending is a win-win. It’s time to look beyond our fights over how to divide America’s pie, and focus on making the pie bigger.


Technical Afterword

There is a very interesting feature to our proposed capital budgeting system that we should highlight. How can the capital budget ever be negative? The capital budget plus the non-capital budget must add up to the total budget. So for a given total budget, a negative capital budget makes the non-capital budget bigger. What is going on is this: regular maintenance is like a quasi-entitlement within the non-capital budget. In any given year, regular maintenance as a component of the non-capital budget is fixed in advance and can’t be altered by the legislature. The only way it changes is that it is gradually reduced if the quantity of capital to be maintained gets lower, or gradually increased if the amount of capital to be maintained gets bigger.

In this lack of discretion about regular maintenance as a component of the non-capital budget, there is no real tying of the hands of the legislature: they could always choose to have a very negative capital budget, which would increase the non-capital budget enough to cover that maintenance. So if the legislature as a whole acted like a fully rational actor, this principle is not a constraint at all. But as political economy, it makes a difference, and a good one. The legislature can increase the non-capital budget and reduce the capital budget. But what the legislature can’t do is get more funds for other things by letting capital decay without it showing up in the accounting as an increase in the regular budget and reduction in the capital budget.

On these technical issues, see also

Quartz #45—>Actually, There Was Some Real Policy in Obama's Speech

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Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 45th Quartz column, “Actually, there was some real policy in Obama’s speech,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on January 29, 2014. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© January 29, 2014: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2015. All rights reserved.


In National Review Online, Ramesh Ponnuru described last night’s State of the Union speech as “… a laundry list of mostly dinky initiatives, and as such a return to Clinton’s style of State of the Union addresses.” I agree with the comparison to Bill Clinton’s appeal to the country’s political center, but Ponnuru’s dismissal of the new initiatives the president mentioned as “dinky” is short-sighted.

In the storm and fury of the political gridiron, the thing to watch is where the line of scrimmage is. And it is precisely initiatives that seem “dinky” because they might have bipartisan support that best show where the political and policy consensus is moving. Here are the hints I gleaned from the text of the State of the Union that policy and politics might be moving in a helpful direction.

  • The president invoked Michelle Obama’s campaign against childhood obesity as something uncontroversial. But this is actually part of what could be a big shift toward viewing obesity to an important degree as a social problem to be addressed as communities instead of solely as a personal problem.
  • The president pushed greater funding for basic research, saying: “Congress should undo the damage done by last year’s cuts to basic research so we can unleash the next great American discovery.” Although neither party has ever been against support for basic research, budget pressures often get in the way. And limits on the length of State of the Union addresses very often mean that science only gets mentioned when it touches on political bones of contention such as stem-cell research or global warming. So it matters that support for basic research got this level of prominence in the State of the Union address. In the long run, more funding for the basic research could have a much greater effect on economic growth than most of the other economicpolicies debated in Congress.
  • The president had kind words for natural gas and among “renewables” only mentions solar energy. This marks a shift toward a vision of coping with global warming that can actually work: Noah Smith’s vision of using natural gas while we phase out coal and improving solar power until solar power finally replaces most natural gas use as well. It is wishful thinking to think that other forms of renewable energy such as wind power will ever take care of a much bigger share of our energy needs than they do now, but solar power is a different matter entirely. Ramez Naam’s Scientific American blog post “Smaller, cheaper, faster: Does Moore’s law apply to solar cells“ says it all. (Don’t miss his most striking graph, the sixth one in the post.)
  • The president emphasized the economic benefits of immigration. I wish he would go even further, as I urged immediately after his reelection in my column, “Obama could really help the US economy by pushing for more legal immigration.” The key thing is to emphasize increasing legal immigration, in a way designed to maximally help our economy. If the rate of legal immigration is raised enough, then the issue of “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants doesn’t have to be raised: if the line is moving fast enough, it is more reasonable to ask those here against our laws to go to the back of the line. The other way to help politically detoxify many immigration issues is to reduce the short-run partisan impact of more legal immigration by agreeing that while it will be much easier to become a permanent legal resident,citizenship with its attendant voting rights and consequent responsibility to help steer our nation in the right direction is something that comes after many years of living in America and absorbing American values. Indeed, I think it would be perfectly reasonable to stipulate that it should take 18 years after getting a green card before becoming a citizen and getting the right to vote—just as it takes 18 years after being born in America to have the right to vote.
  • With his push for pre-kindergarten education at one end and expanded access to community colleges at the other end, Obama has recognized that we need to increase the quantity as well as the quality of education in America. This is all well and good, but these initiatives are focusing on the most costly ways of increasing the quantity of education. The truly cost-effective way of delivering more education is to expand the school day and school year. (I lay out how to do this within existing school budgets in “Magic Ingredient 1: More K-12 School.”)
  • Finally, the president promises to create new forms of retirement savings accounts (the one idea that Ramesh Ponnuru thought was promising in the State of the Union speech). Though this specific initiative is only a baby step, the idea that we should work toward making it easier from a paperwork point of view for people to start saving for retirement than to not start saving for retirement is an idea whose time has come. And it is much more important than people realize. In a way that takes some serious economic theory to explain, increasing the saving rate by making it administratively easier to start saving effects not only people’s financial security during retirement, but also aids American competitiveness internationally, by making it possible to invest out of American saving instead of having to invest out of China’s saving.

Put together, the things that Barack Obama thought were relatively uncontroversial to propose in his State of the Union speech give me hope that key aspects of US economic policy might be moving in a positive direction, even while other aspects of economic policy stay sadly mired in partisan brawls. I am an optimist about our nation’s future because I believe that, in fits and starts, good ideas that are not too strongly identified with one party or the other tend to make their way into policy eventually. Political combat is noisy, while political cooperation is quiet. But quiet progress counts for a lot. And glimmers of hope are better than having no hope at all.

The Irresistability of Market Forces in 1890 New York City

In his book American Colossus: The Triumph of Capitalism 1865-1900, H. W. Brands tells the story of Danish-American photographer and journalist Jacob Riis, who wrote How the Other Half Lives. From H. W. Brands, pp. 296 and 298:  

“The law has done what it could,” Jacob Riis wrote… Riis had found his way back to New York as a journalist, a first of the breed of investigators derided, then respected, as “muckrakers.” The label fit Riis particularly, for his investigations focused on the lives of those on the mudsill of society. Having dwelt there himself, he felt compelled to bring the plight of the lower classes to view. “Long ago it was said that ‘one-half of the world does not know how the other half lives,’” he wrote in 1890. “That was true then. It did not know because it did not care.” It might not care still had the life of the lower half not intruded increasingly on that of the upper. Peasants in the Old World could starve invisibly, far from the manor; poverty in America elbowed wealth every day on the streets of New York and other cities.

Yet wealth looked away and hurried by. Riis proposed to make it stop and look….

The Riis tour continued to “The Bend” of Mulberry Street, the most noisome of New York’s slums. Here reformers had been at work for decades, trying to enforce the housing laws; here they had consistently discovered that the laws of supply and demand trumped the statutes of mere legislators. Landlords resisted the changes, claiming the right of property to a profit. Tenants resisted, for fear of displacement by the higher rents the changes would produce. Nature, it seemed, or at any rate capitalism, conspired to populate every nook and cranny of the Bend. “Incessant raids cannot keep down the crowds that make them their home. In the scores of back alleys, of stable lanes and hidden byways, of which the rent collector alone can keep track, they share such shelter as the ramshackle structures afford with every kind of abomination rifled from the dumps and ash-barrels of the city”

Capitalism had created the Bend, and it thrived within the Bend.

Justin Briggs and Alex Tabarrok: Fewer Guns, Fewer Suicides

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Justin Briggs and Alex Tabbarok have a new paper providing evidence about guns and suicides. Here are some of the highlights from their blog post on that research, “It’s Simple: Fewer Guns, Fewer Suicides”:

Reverse Causality Not a Big Issue

Places with lots of guns may have high homicide rates, but is this because guns cause homicide or because homicides cause people to buy guns? Or could a third factor—say, a general lack of social trust or high violence in a region—be causing both homicides and gun possession? The relationship between suicides and guns is much easier to tackle because it’s unlikely that an increase in the number of suicides in a community would cause an increase in local gun ownership.

Much Less than Perfect Substitution into Other Modes of Suicide

…a percentage-point decrease in household gun ownership leads to between 0.5 and 0.9 percent fewer suicides….While reduced household gun ownership did lead to more suicides by other means, suicides went down overall. That’s because contrary to the “folk wisdom” that people who want to commit suicide will always find a way to get the job done, suicides are not inevitable. Suicides are often impulsive decisions, and guns require less forethought than other means of suicide—and they’re also deadlier.

Natural Experiment 1: Australian Gun Control Led to Fewer Gun Suicides

…following the 1996 killing of 35 people in Port Arthur, Australia, a strong movement for gun control developed in Australia. … these changes resulted in a reduction of the country’s firearm stock by 20 percent, or more than 650,000 firearms, and evidence suggests that it nearly halved the share of Australian households with one or more firearms. The effect of this reduction was an 80 percent fall in suicides by firearm, concentrated in regions with the biggest drop in firearms. Meanwhile there was little sign of any lasting rise in non-firearm suicides.

Natural Experiment 2: Prohibiting Soldiers from Taking Guns Home over the Weekend Led to Fewer Total Gun Suicides

In Israel most 18- to 21-year-olds are drafted into the Israeli Defense Forces and provided with military training—and weapons. Suicide among young IDF members is a serious problem. In an attempt to reduce suicides, the IDF tried a new policy in 2005, prohibiting most soldiers from bringing their weapons home over the weekends. Dr. Gad Lubin, the chief mental health officer for the IDF, and his co-authors estimate that this simple change reduced the total suicide rate among young IDF members by a stunning 40 percent. It’s worth noting that even though you might think that soldiers home for the weekend could easily delay suicide by a day or two, the authors did not find an increase in suicide rates during the weekdays.

If Lives Lost by Suicide are Valued at $8.4 Million Each, What is the Suicide Cost of a Gun?

Considering the value of life tells us that the true price of guns is higher than the monetary price by at least $2,635, the amount needed to be able to compensate for the expected loss of life.

William Graham Sumner, Social Darwinist

William Graham Sumner is a more important historical figure than I had realized until recently. According to the Wikipedia article on him

William Graham Sumner (October 30, 1840 – April 12, 1910) was an American academic and “held the first professorship in sociology” at Yale College.[1] For many years he had a reputation as one of the most influential teachers there. He was a polymath with numerous books and essays on American historyeconomic historypolitical theorysociology, andanthropology. He is credited with introducing the term “ethnocentrism,” a term intended to identify imperialists’ chief means of justification, in his book Folkways (1906). Sumner is often seen as a proto-libertarian. He was also the first to teach a course entitled “Sociology”.[1]

In his economics,

Sumner was a staunch advocate of laissez-faire economics, as well as “a forthright proponent of free trade and the gold standard and a foe of socialism.”[1] Sumner was active in the intellectual promotion of free-trade classical liberalism, and in his heyday and after there were Sumner Clubs here and there. He heavily criticized state socialism/state communism. One adversary he mentioned by name was Edward Bellamy, whose national variant of socialism was set forth in Looking Backward, published in 1888, and the sequel Equality’.

I first read about William Graham Sumner in H. W. Brands’ book American Colossus: The Triumph of American Capitalism, 1865-1900. In this passage below (from pages 501-504), it struck me that William Graham Sumner lays out in stark form many arguments that are still very much alive and kicking in the 21st century. See if you agree.


William Graham Sumner … early imbibed the thinking of Charles Darwin, and that of Herbert Spencer when a bit older, and he followed Spencer in believing that Darwin’s theories explained the rise of civilization. Some people were better at the contest of life than others, Spencer and Sumner said; the good ones climbed out of the jungle of savagery and passed their talents to their offspring, who climbed still higher. The sorting took place both among nations, with the industrial powers of Europe and North America having made the greatest progress so far, and within nations, as certain individuals and families accomplished and attained more than the rest. 

Such, to William Sumner, seemed … obvious … and as undeniable as death. Nor were these views especially controversial in America among the kinds of people who encountered Sumner’s essays in the leading journals of the 1880s and 1890s. Religious conservatives–who tended not to read the Forum, the North American Review, Harper’s, and similar fare–disputed anything to do with Darwin, but among the intelligentsia the description provided by Sumner and the other Social Darwinists didn’t elicit inordinate objection.

Sumner's prescriptions were another matter. Sumner argued that attempts to overrule evolution–as by alleviating the plight of the poor–were both immoral and imprudent. “Those whom humanitarians and philanthropists call the weak are the ones through whom the productive and conservative forces of society are wasted,” he declared. “They constantly neutralize and destroy the finest efforts of the wise and industrious, and are a dead-weight on the society in all its struggles to realize any better things.” The do-gooders had made a cottage industry of weeping for the weak. 

They see wealth and poverty side by side. They note great inequality of social position and social chances. They eagerly set about the attempt to account for what they see, and to devise schemes for remedying what they do not like. In their eagerness to recommend the less fortunate classes to pity and consideration, they forget all about the rights of other classes, they gloss over the faults of the classes in question, and they exaggerate their misfortunes and their virtues. They invent new theories of property, distorting rights and perpetuating injustice, as anyone is sure to do who sets about the readjustment of social relations with the interests of one group distinctly before his mind, and the interests of all other groups thrown into the background. When i have read certain of these discussions, I have thought that it must be quite disreputable to be respectable, quite dishonest to own property, quite unjust to go one’s own way and earn one’s own living, and that the only really admirable person was the good-for-nothing.

The reformers, Sumner said, were constantly hatching plans to employ the power of government on behalf of their favored victims. “Their schemes, therefore, may always be reduced to this type–that A and B decide what C shall do for D.” A and B were the reformers; they derived power and self-satisfaction from this arrangement. D, the object of their concern, received material benefits. C, whom Sumner called the “Forgotten Man,” unwillingly supported the others. “We should get a new maxim of judicious living,” Sumner said sarcastically: “Poverty is the best policy. If you get wealth, you will have to support other people; if you do not get wealth, it will be the duty of other people to support you.”

The immorality of freeloading aside, Sumner held that tampering with the social mechanism reduced total welfare. “If any one will look over his dinner table the next time he sits down to dinner, he can see the proofs that thousands of producers, transporters, merchants, bankers, policemen, and mechanics, through the whole organization of society and all over the globe, have been at work for the last year or more to put that dinner within his reach.” All this happened not by accident but by an interlocking set of agreements and expectations evolved over time. Reformers thought they could improve the operation of the social mechanism by bending this lever or adjusting that flywheel; instead they threw the whole thing out of order. 

Rejecting reform, Sumner put his faith in laissez faire. “Let us translate it into blunt English,” he said of the French phrase. “It will read: Mind your own business. It is nothing but the doctrine of liberty. Let every man be happy in his own way.” Sumner didn’t promise paradise. “We never supposed that laissez faire would give us perfect happiness. We have left perfect happiness entirely out of our account.” He would settle for imperfection not made worse by reformers. “If the social doctors will mind their own business, we shall have no troubles but what belong to Nature. Those we will endure or combat as we can. What we desire is that the friends of humanity should cease to add to them.”

Sumner’s philosophy supported domestic capitalism in obvious ways and was often cited to that effect; but it had implications for foreign policy as well. The struggle among humans took sharpest form in war, with the fit inheriting the earth and the meek finding early graves. This had been so from time out of mind, and the onset of industrialization hadn’t changed anything essential. “War has always existed and always will,” Sumner wrote. “It is in the conditions of human existence.” Tribes and nations competed for the resources of the earth, starting with land but extending, in the modern age, to vital minerals, markets for exports, and opportunities for investment. The deft and strong advanced, the rest retreated, and each tear devoted to the losers was water wasted. “The inevitable doom of those who cannot or will not come into the new worlds system is that they must perish. Philanthropy may delay their fate, and it certainly can prevent any wanton and cruel hastening of it; but it cannot avert it, because it is brought on by forces which carry us all along like dust upon a whirlwind.”

Yet Sumner refused to celebrate war, any more than he celebrated famine, pestilence, or other winnowers of the human race. “Shall any statesman … ever dare to say that it would be well, at a given moment, to have a war, lest the nation fall into the vices of industrialism and the evils of peace? The answer is plainly: No! … No war which can be avoided is just to the people who have to carry it on, to say nothing of the enemy. … A statesman who proposes war as an instrumentality admits his incompetency. 

Even so, wars would come whether humans willed them or not. And like the other riders of the apocalypse they left improvement in their wake. "While men were fighting for glory and greed, for revenge and superstition, they were building human society. They were acquiring discipline and cohesion; they were learning cooperation, perseverance, fortitude and patience. … War forms larger social units and produces states. … The great conquests have destroyed what was effete and opened the way for what was viable.

Jessica Hammer: The World Poverty Situation is Better Than You Think

My students continue to write excellent blog posts on an internal blog for my “Monetary and Financial Theory” class, and have been good enough to give me permission to publish them here. This Saturday, I want to share the two I liked best this past week. Jessica Hammer’s post gives an excellent synthesis about the world poverty situation. 


It is very common for us to hear, and say, that the world’s most pressing issues are war, disease, poverty, etc. Indeed, these are problems humanity faces today, and has been facing for all of history. Complex, far-reaching complications like these deserve our attention always. But the focus of this post is on poverty, in which we have made colossal improvements, despite popular belief.

The kind of poverty with which we are concerned is absolute poverty, not relative (which measures well-being compared to others in the same area). The World Bank defines poverty as “pronounced deprivation in well-being. The conventional view links well-being primarily to command over commodities, so the poor are those who do not have enough income or consumption to put them above some adequate minimum threshold.” That threshold has been defined as $1.25 per day (although $1.50 or $2.00 per day are at times used instead).

First, people tend to focus on the negative statistics of poverty. Of course the fact that in 2010, 21% of households in developing countries lived below the extreme poverty line ($1.25 per person daily), deserves our attention and is not to be understated. But the usually-overlooked side of the statistic reveals that just 30 years earlier (in 1980) the figure was at 52%. That is quite an astonishing improvement in such a short period of time. An article from the New York Times has a very optimistic take on this issue. It quotes that “In April, the Development Committee of the World Bank set the goal of ending extreme poverty by the year 2030. More recently, the United Nations General Assembly working group on global goals concluded that “eradicating poverty in a generation is an ambitious but feasible goal.””

Many popular myths about poverty often undermine the potential to eradicate it. An article from the WSJ explains the three main ones: that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, foreign aid is a waste, and saving lives leads to overpopulation. To say that poor countries are doomed to stay poor is to have a very ignorant take on history. Many of the world’s richest, and fastest-growing countries today were once very poor (such as South Korea, China, Thailand, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, and India). This is not to say that poverty traps are not real, they very much are. But it is quite possible to overcome them. The article predicts that “by 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.” This is a very ambitious prediction, of which I too am skeptical, but experts seem to agree with the general positive trend of eradicating poverty in the 21st century.

Also, as the article outlines, foreign aid is a significant factor in getting countries out of poverty traps. The issue of corruption is evident, but it is not significant enough to stop helping these countries altogether. The article states “we’ve heard plenty of people calling to shut down aid programs if one dollar of corruption is found. But four of the past seven governors of Illinois went to prison for corruption, and no one is demanding that Illinois’s schools be shut down or its highways closed.” It is also not the case that countries become dependent on aid–Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Thailand, Mauritius, Botswana, Morocco, Singapore and Malaysia have grown so much that they barely receive aid today. This being said, there is much debate about whether aid is actually helpful. Kenneth Rogoff summarizes the argument against foreign aid, stating that it is often misdirected, misused, it puts a strain on local resources, and that most of today’s biggest economies grew without the help of aid. (Thanks to Max Huppertz for the link to this). Unfortunately, it is difficult to know the effects of aid with certainty. However, it is true that under-developed countries today are trying to emerge into existing global markets, whereas growing countries in the past basically created the global markets.

Lastly, the idea that saving people will lead to overpopulation is, in my opinion, the most ridiculous one. Not only is it inhumane, but it is entirely wrong. As countries develop, their death rates fall and birth rates fall soon after. The general trend indicates that development leads to a sharp decrease in population growth. Many of the world’s richest countries today are in fact headed in a negative population-growth direction (like Germany). It is simply not true that feeding poor people will just produce more poor people. Education, medicine, and contraception are the key to reducing birth rates, for which aid is often necessary.

In sum, the eradication of poverty is much more feasible than we tend to think. The myths we often use to disprove the idea of eradication, are found to be completely wrong. Looking at the vast improvement in poverty over the past 50 years is not reason to sit back and feel accomplished, it is reason to work harder to eradicate it because the end is in sight. Of course, there will always be “poor” people compared to others (i.e. inequality)–which is a separate issue. But the poor we are concerned with (for now) are ones who cannot eat enough to work, and live. Putting an end to this kind of poverty will propel countries into development, and make everyone in the world better off.

Quartz #43—>That Baby Born in Bethlehem Should Inspire Society to Keep Redeeming Itself

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Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 43d Quartz column, “That baby born in Bethlehem should inspire society to keep redeeming itself,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on December 8, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

I followed up the main theme of this column with my post “The Importance of the Next Generation: Thomas Jefferson Grokked It.” I followed up the gay marriage theme with my column “The Case for Gay Marriage is Made in the Freedom of Religion.” I also have a draft column on abortion policy that is waiting for a news hook as an occasion to publish it.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© December 8, 2013: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2015. All rights reserved.


Among its many other meanings, Christmas points to a central truth of human life: a baby can grow up to change the world. But it is not just that a baby can grow up to change the world; in the human sense, babies are the world: a hundred-odd years from now, all of humanity will be made up of current and future babies.

Babies begin life with the genetic heritage of humankind, then very soon take hold of, reconfigure, and carry on the cultural heritage of humanity. The significance of young human beings as a group is obscured in daily life by the evident power of old human beings. But for anyone who cares about the long run, it is a big mistake to forget that the young are the ultimate judges for the fate of any aspect of culture.

Since those who are now young are the ultimate judges for our culture, it won’t do to neglect instilling in them the kind of morality and ethics that can make them good judges. I have been grateful for the lessons in morality and ethics that I had as a child in a religious context, and with my own children, I saw many of these lessons instilled effectively in short moral lessons at the end of Tae Kwon Do martial arts classes. I don’t see any reason why that kind of secularized moral lessons can’t be taught in our schools, along with practical skills and a deep understanding of academic subjects, especially if we do right by kids by giving them time to learn by lengthening the school day and year.

In at least two controversies, the collective judgments of the young seem on target to me. Robert Putnam of Bowling Alone fame came to the University of Michigan a few years ago to talk about the research behind his more recent book with David Campbell,  American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us. He expressed surprise that many young people are becoming alienated from traditional religion when attitudes toward abortion among the young are similar to attitudes among those who are older. But the alienation from traditional religion did not surprise me at all given another fact he reported: the young are dramatically more accepting and supportive of gay marriage than those who are older. I am glad that the young are troubled by the conflict between reproductive freedom and reverence for the beginnings of human life presented by abortion on the one hand and abortion restrictions on the other. But there is no such conflict in the case of gay marriage, which pits the rights of gay couples to make socially sanctioned commitments to one another and enjoy the dignity and practical benefits of a hallowed institution against ancient custom, theocratic impulses, and misfiring disgust instincts that most of the young rightly reject. In this, the young are (perhaps without knowing it) following the example of that baby born in Bethlehem, who always gave honor to those who had been pushed to the edges of the society in which he became a man.

The hot-button controversy of gay marriage is not the only area of our culture due for full-scale revision. Our nation and the world will soon become immensely richer, stronger, and wiser if young people around the world reject the idea I grew up with that intelligence is a fixed, inborn quantity. The truth that hard work adds enormously to intelligence can set them free. What will make an even bigger difference is if they also enshrine their youthful idealism in a vision of a better world that can not only motivate them when young, but also withstand the cares of middle-age to guide their efforts throughout their lives.

Knowing that those who are now young, or are as yet unborn, will soon hold the future of humanity in their hands should make us alarmed at the number of children who don’t have even the basics of life. By far, the worst cases are abroad. The simplest way to help is to stop exerting such great efforts to put obstacles in the way of a better life for them. But whether or not we are willing to do that, it is a good thing to donate to charities that help those in greatest need. Also, I give great honor to those economists working hard trying to figure out how to make poor countries rich.

For those of us already in the second halves of our lives, the fact that the young will soon replace us gives rise to an important strategic principle: however hard it may seem to change misguided institutions and policies, all it takes to succeed in such an effort is to durably convince the young that there is a better way. Max Planck, the father of quantum mechanics, said “Science progresses funeral by funeral.” In a direction not quite as likely to be positive, society evolves from funeral to funeral as well—the funerals of those whose viewpoints do not persuade the young.

It is a very common foolishness to look down on children as unimportant. The deep end of common sense is to respect children and to bring to bear our best efforts, both intellectually and materially, to help them become the best representatives of our species that the universe has ever seen.

Josh Barro: We Need a New Supply Side Economics—Here Are 8 Things We Can Do

 

Noah Smith and Christopher Cordeiro tweeted that Josh Barro’s column “We Need A New Supply Side Economics — Here Are 8 Things We Can Do” sounded like ideas I would favor. They are right. 

I fully agree with Josh’s lead-in:

Demand stimulation remains the right goal today, but it’s not going to be the right goal forever. …

We’re going to need a new supply side economics that encourages people to work, invest and innovate.

Some of Josh’s proposals cost money, for which he proposes more progressive income taxes as a revenue source (as his 8th point). I have proposed tapping the resources of the rich in a different way. I want to  finance an expansion of the nonprofit sector (see the links in “The Red Banker on Supply-Side Liberalism”). To get there politically, I enunciated the principle of “No Tax Increase Without Recompense.” So I cannot go along with Josh’s proposal raise income taxes at the upper end in a conventional way. (Also see the Twitter discussions “Daniel Altman and Miles Kimball: Should We Expand Government or Expand the Nonprofit Sector?” and “Daniel Altman and Miles Kimball: Is It OK to Let the Rich Be Rich As Long As We Take Care of the Poor?”) The expansion of the nonprofit sector that I propose will help the poor tremendously in many ways beyond the dimension Josh is focuses on.

More generally, I think it is better to build progressivity into the spending side of the government’s activities–including transfers–than into the tax side. Instead, I think Josh’s proposed enhancements of programs to direct more resources toward the poor can also serve as ways to compensate the poor for increases in increases in taxes on externalities such as carbon dioxide emissions and the consumption of soft drinks and junk food that affect the behavior of all those around us through not-fully-conscious social influences

Here is Josh’s list, minus the income tax increase, with my comments:

1. Invest in smart infrastructure, ideally without building much.

Yes! Noah and I have an column on infrastructure investment. And I agree with Josh that it is a bad habit to get into to think of infrastructure investment as a demand-side thing. We need to keep in our sights getting supply-side benefits from the infrastructure investments that we make. 

I would emphasize government support for basic research in the same breath as infrastructure investment. Indeed, I think there is even more supply-side benefit to be had from government support for basic research than from additional infrastructure investment. 

2. Reform means-tested entitlements without soaking the poor.

Josh wants to phase out aid to the poor more slowly with higher income, in order to avoid discouraging people from working hard and avoid discouraging people from building their careers through education and other means. This is great, but it will cost the government more money. I would like to reward healthy eating and not contributing too much to global warming across the whole population, as well as rewarding the poor for working hard and getting an education. That combination can finance itself.    

3. Move the deregulatory agenda down to the state and local level.

This is one of Josh’s points that I think needs to be shouted from the rooftops. Here is the full text of what he said on this point:

In the 1970s, the big deregulation fights were properly at the federal level. Then the government deregulated airlines and trucking. Though technological change, regulation has become less important in broadcasting and telecommunications. Bank deregulation has been a mixed bag over this period; people talk about it as a cautionary tale, but some of the deregulations (such as ending the limit on savings account interest and allowing interstate banking) have served consumers very well.

The big federal regulatory fights that remain are in mostly areas where the federal government properly uses a heavy hand: banking and securities, and environmental protection.

The next round of big deregulation fights should be at the state and local level. Governments impose pro-incumbent regulations on a variety of industries from barbering to interior design to medicine to restaurants. These rules raise incomes for existing practitioners, but they make it difficult for new practitioners to enter the fields, and they raise consumer prices.

State and local governments should stop doing this.

In the interest of promoting interstate commerce, the federal government should pre-empt many of these regulations. For example, states should be forced to allow a broad scope of practice for nurse practitioners so they can serve as independent primary care providers. This would reduce doctors’ incomes, but it would reduce the cost of health care, raise patients’ real incomes and help to control government expenditure.

What I have said on this topic can be found in my post

4. Deregulate America’s most overregulated industry: real estate.

Here, Josh is on the same side as Matthew Yglesias, who wrote the book on this issue: The Rent is Too Damn High. I am part of the cheering section for their efforts. Given the fraction of household budgets spent on housing, this is a huge issue.  

5. Reform intellectual property — by weakening it.

I endorse this idea in my link post “The Wonderful, Now Suppressed, Republican Study Committee Brief on Copyright Law.” I also muse on how much protection is necessary in my post “Copyright.” Wonderful, amazing new things will happen if we shift to less restrictive intellectual property rules. And if we overshoot in a way that undercompensates creators, that can easily be fixed later. It is high time we experimented with more fluid rules. 

Given the pace of innovation and the rate at which things become obsolete, one change that almost certainly a winner is to shorten the term for patents and copyrights. The only place this seems problematic is in retaining adequate incentives for the development of new drugs. There, combining a shorter period of exclusivity with the government paying for half of the cost of drug trials would probably keep just as much innovation while still helping the government budget, since the government pays for drugs as part of Medicare now.  

6. Improve education, somehow.

I have written a fair amount about education. Improving education will be an ongoing theme for me. Here is a link to my sub-blog on education, and here are some of the most important posts:

7. Admit more high-skill immigrants.

More open borders is something I am passionate about. But I would not limit it to high-skill immigrants. Helping the poor who are currently in other countries is also important. Here are some of my more important posts in that vein:

Quartz #40-->"The Hunger Games" Is Hardly Our Future--It's Already Here

Here is the full text of my 40th Quartz column, “The Hunger Games is hardly our future—it’s already here," now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on December 8, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© December 8, 2013: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2017. All rights reserved.

***********************************************************************

The Hunger Games paints an eerily apt picture of the world’s reality. The Capitol is the rich nations of the world: the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, Israel, New Zealand, some oil kingdoms, most European nations. The Districts are the poor nations of the world—Haiti, Nepal, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Papua New Guinea, many countries in central Asia and Africa, all of which have per capita incomes less than $10 per day.

The Capitol, with all of its abundance of food, advanced medical care, and gadgets, is surrounded by a giant high-tech, booby-trapped WALL. The point of the Games is to burrow through the WALL to get to the material paradise of the Capitol without getting killed or caught and sent back to the Districts to starve.

The most important difference between Suzanne Collins’s Hunger Games and my variant is that the poverty in the real world is unfathomably worse than the poverty depicted in the series. The only way I know to convey this to my students who have never left the United States is to read to them every word of Nicholas Kristof’s New York Times essay, “Where Sweatshops are a Dream.”

The other difference is that, in Suzanne Collins’s version, the evil the Capitol does with its Games has roots as deep as the nation itself, while in the United States, at least, we build a wall to keep immigrants out in contradiction to our own historical traditions and the example set by the founders of our nation. We do this not only heartlessly, for the sake of what are in all likelihood relatively small gains for a modest slice of our population, but also stupidly. The tight restrictions we impose on immigration come at great cost to our economy, to future government budgets and the future geopolitical power of the United States.

Are immigration restrictions necessary? There may be some limit to the speed at which we can take in newcomers. But there is good reason to think it is much higher than the current rate of immigration. In the decade from 1900 to 1910, immigration was over 1% of the US population per year. There were some strains, but things didn’t fall apart, and America is much stronger now because of those early 20th century immigrants and their descendants. For comparison, the number of permanent legal immigrants into the US now is only 0.33% of the US population per year and the entire stock of undocumented immigrants in the US, from many many years of migration, is only 3.7% of the US population—nothing close to the 1% immigration rate the US had in the first decade of the 20th century. And those immigrants would assimilate much more quickly into our communities if they didn’t have to hide in the shadows because of the laws that brand them as criminals.

The philosopher Michael Huemer gives a good discussion of the ethics of immigration restrictions here.  A key point is that many US citizens would love to host immigrants from other countries. Some Americans are preventing other Americans from welcoming immigrants as they would like to. And many people around the world would be delighted to come to the United States even if they were totally barred from receiving any public assistance whatsoever.

In the real world, exclusion is a form of cruelty that we take for granted. Keeping people out of a material paradise for no good reason turns utopia into dystopia. By keeping immigrants out, the United States—like the other rich nations of the world—plays the role of the Capitol in my twist on The Hunger Games. But all we need to do to change that is to honor once again the words on the Statue of Liberty: “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free …”

Tom Bowen's Gift to Humanity: A Powerful Australian Technology

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Wikipedia article on the “Bowen Technique”

My wife Gail is a massage therapist. I am not. But I am a certified Bowenwork practicioner. Here is the description of Bowenwork that I wrote during the qualifying exam:

Bowenwork is a minimalist form of hands-on bodywork that uses the body’s signalling system to encourage the body to heal and rebalance itself. The moves are gentle and safe, and the technique can induce profound relaxation as well as address many specific problems.

One thing I like about Bowenwork is that there is no theoretical orthodoxy to it. The results are surprisingly powerful in relation to the moves themselves (which are spaced out at intervals to allow the body to process each set of signals before the next set). Tom Bowen, the Australian inventor of the type of bodywork named after him, did things without giving any explanation for why they worked. But they do.

I enjoyed taking the classes to learn Bowenwork with my wife. I feel I have learned a lot in a relatively short amount of time. It is nice to be able to help my wife with some of her aches and pains. And by learning a technique of bodywork I have gained a lot more confidence in thinking through the nature of my own aches and pains.

(I read in a massage magazine a critique of our culture only a bodyworker in the broad sense would think of: “We are a flexion-based culture.” Flexion is when joints bend in the direction they bend when someone curls up into a ball, like a fetus is curled up in the womb. Using our electronic devices and deskwork more generally tend to bend us in that direction. Something needs to be done to counteract that. Bowenwork helps, and so does stretching and exercising in the opposite direction: extension. One important principle most people don’t realize is that it is typical to hurt on the opposite side from where they are tight. For example, tight chest muscles will often make people hurt between their shoulders. In that case, counterintuitively, the remedy is to stretch the chest muscles–by, say lying backward on an exercise ball–and to do exercises that contract the hurting, overstretched muscles between the shoulders in order to strengthen them. Similarly, if the backs of one’s hands hurt, it is typically a sign of doing a lot of work that pulls the fingers together. The remedy is to do exercises opening up the hand against the resistance of a rubber band around all five fingers near their ends, which strengthens the extensor muscles on the back of the hand and forearm that are hurting because their opposites on the insides of the hands and forearms have gotten so strong and contracted.)

One of the remarkable things about Bowenwork is that the moves are gentle enough it is easy to do them on oneself. There are some quick moves I do on myself almost every day to counteract the effects of many hours at the computer keyboard. As a blogger, Bowenwork is my secret weapon enabling me to do as much as I do online, without suffering too many adverse side effects from the physical aspects of computer work, particularly in the neck, shoulders and arms. 

I live in my head a lot. But I depend on my body to be ready to do what needs to be done to execute ideas for research and writing. And the body also affects the mind, if only because pain is distracting. I am glad to have some extra tools to help keep my body in good working order.

John Cochrane: What Free-Market Medical Care Would Look Like

Link to ungated copy of “What to Do When Obamacare Unravels” on John Cochrane’s website “The Grumpy Economist”

I love John Cochrane’s health care proposal in the December 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal op-ed “What to Do When Obamacare Unravels”  (ungated on John’s blog).  It should work very well, and to the extent it is imperfect, experimenting with John Cochrane’s proposal would teach us a lot more about health care delivery than the Obamacare experiment will.

My favorite passage is this:

No other country has a free health market, you may object. The rest of the world is closer to single payer, and spends less.

Sure. We can have a single government-run airline too. We can ban FedEx and UPS, and have a single-payer post office. We can have government-run telephones and TV. Thirty years ago every other country had all of these, and worthies said that markets couldn’t work for travel, package delivery, the “natural monopoly” of telephones and TV. Until we tried it. That the rest of the world spends less just shows how dysfunctional our current system is, not how a free market would work.

I wish I had written “What to Do When Obamacare Unravels.” I have some hopes that what I did write, “Don’t Believe Anyone Who Claims to Understand the Economics of Obamacare,” is still worth reading as a companion article to what John says.

Update: There is a very interesting discussion of this post on my Facebook wall. 

Quartz #39—>Gratitude Is More Than Simple Sentiment: It Is the Motivation That Can Save the World

Link to the Column on Quartz

Here is the full text of my 39th Quartz column, “Gratitude is more than simple sentiment; it is the motivation that can save the world,” now brought home to supplysideliberal.com. It was first published on November 28, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here.

This is my first Thanksgiving column; I am making it my New Year’s Day post as well. My Thanksgiving-inspired post in 2012 was

I also had a Christmas column this year, and a Christmas post last year:

If you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, that is possible for a limited time if you read the legal notice at this link and include both a link to the original Quartz column and the following copyright notice:

© November 28, 2013: Miles Kimball, as first published on Quartz. Used by permission according to a temporary nonexclusive license expiring June 30, 2015. All rights reserved.


As my regular academic work slows down in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, my thoughts have turned toward gratitude. In a visceral way, I feel thankful for my family, for my work, for the exhilarating November air on a brisk walk around my neighborhood, for my friends both here in Ann Arbor and online, and for being alive in this very interesting era—in what I believe is still close to the dawn of human history, yet a time of great abundance compared to what has gone before in past centuries.

Gratitude is a surprisingly powerful force in our souls—powerful enough to badly contradict simple economic models filled with “agents” who are in it only for themselves (and maybe for their dynasty of direct descendants). Evolutionary psychologists and evolutionary philosophers call gratitude reciprocal altruism, and point to it as a central part of what makes us human. We may not be the only species that displays reciprocal altruism, but we seem to be one of the few, and the only species in which we know reciprocal altruism to be associated with strong emotions of gratitude.

Gratitude is an important foundation of friendship, and for lucky people like me, of lasting marriages.  But gratitude is also one of the foundations of larger social units.Here, the trick, as near as I can make it out, is for a society to have a ready answer to the question “Where do all the good things in my life come from?” Or to be more precise, to have a ready answer to the question “And where does that come from?” For many cultures or subcultures, the answer at the end of the chain is God or other divine beings. At the other extreme, in the worst excesses of tyranny, the answer at the end of the chain is the great dictator himself (usually) or herself (still rare).When a culture—like the more secular side of American culture, or international cosmopolitan culture—has no ready answer to this question of what underlying power to be grateful to, it is bound to be harder to motivate people to do what it takes to keep society from flying apart at the seams—harder, but not impossible.

It matters how well we can encourage people to feel existential gratitude and then “pay it forward” by looking after the general welfare of their communities, humanity, or all of life. I am not talking about the desire to “save the world” in one particular way, but the desire to find one’s own way—or a way made one’s own—to make the world better than it would have been otherwise. Those who already feel in any measure the desire to save the world should contemplate how to kindle that desire in the hearts of others. A good place to start is to ponder (without exaggerating its strength) the origins of one’s own desire to do good in the world.

Like many a bookworm, I spent much of my childhood reading. That I was not destined to be an English professor was intimated by the way in which the voices of all the authors of most of the books I read merged into a single authorial voice. I felt a great deal of gratitude for those authors who made thoughts leap in my head and stories play out in my mind’s eye—gratitude, and admiration. I wanted to be like them someday—to be able to cause someone else the pleasure I got from reading. Later, as an adult, my reading of history and life experience at long last made me feel in my gut deep gratitude and admiration for the framers of the US Constitution that, for all its imperfections, has made it so I have had the freedom to believe as I choose, and to express those beliefs in both word and deed—even when others don’t agree. In all nations, and with all varieties of opinion, I hope that most of those who enter the public arena around the world have a desire to be like the wisest men and women in the past in trying to build a strong and good foundation for human flourishing and the flourishing of life itself for ages to come.

Energized by gratitude toward God, authors, framers, or the beautiful blended image of all those who have done us good, let us go forward to do what we can to make the world a better place. It won’t be easy. We need to be carefully self-reflective about our other motivesintelligent in our tactics, and always pay attention to the crucial task of trying to inspire others to take on the role of white hat as we go forward. But I believe the universe, though it may be heartless and too often cruel, is fair enough that even a very small army of human beings, honestly trying to do good, will make something good come to pass.

Making a Difference: Save-the-World Posts as of December 3, 2013

One of the reasons I blog is to do what I can to make the world a better place. In a useful hyperbole, I call this “saving the world.” This is my selection of posts that are in that vein. I have done posts with selections of “save-the-world” posts periodically since July 8, 2012, but it has been a long time since the last one on January 17, 2013.

I hope you will join me in trying to save the world–perhaps in a way very different from anything I have contemplated.

A word about the selection. My definition of “save-the-world posts” is the posts I most want you to read when I think of the objective of making the world a better place. Because of my view that the usual partisan debates are already well-discussed, for the most part, I am leaving aside posts that are about the current policy debates you would read about in regular news outlets. If you are interested in my contribution to those battles, take a look at my monetary policy sub-blog, the list of posts on taxation I give A Year in the Life of a Supply-Side Liberal, and the post I wrote immediately after watching Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech for the Republican nomination for President: The Magic of Etch-a-Sketch: A Supply-Side Liberal Fantasy.

Let me try to categorize these save-the-world posts in a way that makes sense.

It is Possible to Make a Difference

and

for which the full text is 

May the best in the human spirit vanquish the worst in the human spirit.

Where Does the Motivation Come from to Want to Make a Difference?

Vision

Handbook for Making a Difference

Appreciating the Progress Has Been and Is Being Made

Ending Recessions and Inflation

Economic Stabilization in the Euro Zone

Financial Stability and Its Interaction with Monetary Policy

Long-Run Budget Balance

Geopolitical Stability

Economic Growth

Education

Saving Nature

Happiness

Making Religions that Work Even for Agnostics and Atheists

Freedom

Moral Dimensions of Public Policy

Hard Problems I Don’t Have a Good Solution For: Reforming Health Care and Women’s Second Shift

Enlightened Self-Interest vs. the Anti-Immigration Mob

Illustration of the Rock Springs Massacre from Harper’s Weekly

H. W. Brands, writing in The American Colossus: The Triumph of Capitalism 1865-1900 (p. 300):

The formal effect of the Chinese Exclusion Act was to bar most new immigration from China, but its informal effect was to declare open season on Chinese already in America. Within months of the act’s passage, what the Chinese called the “driving out” began. White hooligans waged racial war against Chinese across much of the West, killing twenty-eight in Rock Springs, Wyoming, thirty-one on the Snake River in eastern Washington, and smaller numbers elsewhere. Occasionally whites stuck up for their Chinese neighbors, if sometimes from selfish motives. A white gambler in Denver pulled six-guns on an anti-Chinese mob and told them to desist. “If you kill Wong, who in the hell will do my laundry?” he demanded. But in most places the mobs had their way. Rural communities of Chinese largely disappeared, their inhabitants driven off, their homes burned, their property seized by those doing the driving.

Quartz #36—>There's One Key Difference Between Kids Who Excel at Math and Those Who Don't

Here is the full text of my 36th Quartz column, and 2d column coauthored with Noah Smith, “There’s One Key Difference Between Kids Who Excel at Math and Those Who Don’t.” I am glad to now bring it home to supplysideliberal.com, and Noah will post it on his blog Noahpinion as well. It was first published on October 27, 2013. Links to all my other columns can be found here. In particular, don’t miss my follow-up column

How to Turn Every Child into a “Math Person.”

The warm reception for this column has been overwhelming. I think there is a hunger for this message out there. We want to get the message out, so if you want to mirror the content of this post on another site, just include both a link to the original Quartz column and to supplysideliberal.com.


“I’m just not a math person.”

We hear it all the time. And we’ve had enough. Because we believe that the idea of “math people” is the most self-destructive idea in America today. The truth is, you probably are a math person, and by thinking otherwise, you are possibly hamstringing your own career. Worse, you may be helping to perpetuate a pernicious myth that is harming underprivileged children—the myth of inborn genetic math ability.

Is math ability genetic? Sure, to some degree. Terence Tao, UCLA’s famous virtuoso mathematician, publishes dozens of papers in top journals every year, and is sought out by researchers around the world to help with the hardest parts of their theories. Essentially none of us could ever be as good at math as Terence Tao, no matter how hard we tried or how well we were taught. But here’s the thing: We don’t have to! For high school math, inborn talent is just much less important than hard work, preparation, and self-confidence.

How do we know this? First of all, both of us have taught math for many years—as professors, teaching assistants, and private tutors. Again and again, we have seen the following pattern repeat itself:

  1. Different kids with different levels of preparation come into a math class. Some of these kids have parents who have drilled them on math from a young age, while others never had that kind of parental input.

  2. On the first few tests, the well-prepared kids get perfect scores, while the unprepared kids get only what they could figure out by winging it—maybe 80 or 85%, a solid B.

  3. The unprepared kids, not realizing that the top scorers were well-prepared, assume that genetic ability was what determined the performance differences. Deciding that they “just aren’t math people,” they don’t try hard in future classes, and fall further behind.

  4. The well-prepared kids, not realizing that the B students were simply unprepared, assume that they are “math people,” and work hard in the future, cementing their advantage.

Thus, people’s belief that math ability can’t change becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The idea that math ability is mostly genetic is one dark facet of a larger fallacy that intelligence is mostly genetic. Academic psychology journals are well stocked with papers studying the world view that lies behind the kind of self-fulfilling prophecy we just described. For example, Purdue University psychologist Patricia Linehan writes:

A body of research on conceptions of ability has shown two orientations toward ability. Students with an Incremental orientation believe ability (intelligence) to be malleable, a quality that increases with effort. Students with an Entity orientation believe ability to be nonmalleable, a fixed quality of self that does not increase with effort.

The “entity orientation” that says “You are smart or not, end of story,” leads to bad outcomes—a result that has been confirmed by many other studies. (The relevance for math is shown by researchers at Oklahoma City who recently found that belief in inborn math ability may be responsible for much of the gender gap in mathematics.)

Psychologists Lisa Blackwell, Kali Trzesniewski, and Carol Dweck presented these alternatives to determine people’s beliefs about intelligence:

  1. You have a certain amount of intelligence, and you really can’t do much to change it.

  2. You can always greatly change how intelligent you are.

They found that students who agreed that “You can always greatly change how intelligent you are” got higher grades. But as Richard Nisbett recounts in his book Intelligence and How to Get It,they did something even more remarkable:

Dweck and her colleagues then tried to convince a group of poor minority junior high school students that intelligence is highly malleable and can be developed by hard work…that learning changes the brain by forming new…connections and that students are in charge of this change process.

The results? Convincing students that they could make themselves smarter by hard work led them to work harder and get higher grades. The intervention had the biggest effect for students who started out believing intelligence was genetic. (A control group, who were taught how memory works, showed no such gains.)

But improving grades was not the most dramatic effect, “Dweck reported that some of her tough junior high school boys were reduced to tears by the news that their intelligence was substantially under their control.” It is no picnic going through life believing you were born dumb—and are doomed to stay that way.

For almost everyone, believing that you were born dumb—and are doomed to stay that way—is believing a lie. IQ itself can improve with hard work. Because the truth may be hard to believe, here is a set of links about some excellent books to convince you that most people can become smart in many ways, if they work hard enough:

So why do we focus on math? For one thing, math skills are increasingly important for getting good jobs these days—so believing you can’t learn math is especially self-destructive. But we also believe that math is the area where America’s “fallacy of inborn ability” is the most entrenched. Math is the great mental bogeyman of an unconfident America. If we can convince you that anyone can learn math, it should be a short step to convincing you that you can learn just about anything, if you work hard enough.

Is America more susceptible than other nations to the dangerous idea of genetic math ability? Here our evidence is only anecdotal, but we suspect that this is the case. While American fourth and eighth graders score quite well in international math comparisons—beating countries like Germany, the UK and Sweden—our high-schoolers  underperform those countries by a wide margin. This suggests that Americans’ native ability is just as good as anyone’s, but that we fail to capitalize on that ability through hard work. In response to the lackluster high school math performance, some influential voices in American education policy have suggested simply teaching less math—for example, Andrew Hacker has called for algebra to no longer be a requirement. The subtext, of course, is that large numbers of American kids are simply not born with the ability to solve for x.

We believe that this approach is disastrous and wrong. First of all, it leaves many Americans ill-prepared to compete in a global marketplace with hard-working foreigners. But even more importantly, it may contribute to inequality. A great deal of research has shown that technical skills in areas like software are increasingly making the difference between America’s upper middle class and its working class. While we don’t think education is a cure-all for inequality, we definitely believe that in an increasingly automated workplace, Americans who give up on math are selling themselves short.

Too many Americans go through life terrified of equations and mathematical symbols. We think what many of them are afraid of is “proving” themselves to be genetically inferior by failing to instantly comprehend the equations (when, of course, in reality, even a math professor would have to read closely). So they recoil from anything that looks like math, protesting: “I’m not a math person.” And so they exclude themselves from quite a few lucrative career opportunities. We believe that this has to stop. Our view is shared by economist and writer Allison Schrager, who has written two wonderful columns in Quartz (here and here), that echo many of our views.

One way to help Americans excel at math is to copy the approach of the Japanese, Chinese, and Koreans.  In Intelligence and How to Get It,  Nisbett describes how the educational systems of East Asian countries focus more on hard work than on inborn talent:

  1. “Children in Japan go to school about 240 days a year, whereas children in the United States go to school about 180 days a year.”

  2. “Japanese high school students of the 1980s studied 3 ½ hours a day, and that number is likely to be, if anything, higher today.”

  3. “[The inhabitants of Japan and Korea] do not need to read this book to find out that intelligence and intellectual accomplishment are highly malleable. Confucius set that matter straight twenty-five hundred years ago.”

  4. “When they do badly at something, [Japanese, Koreans, etc.] respond by working harder at it.”

  5. “Persistence in the face of failure is very much part of the Asian tradition of self-improvement. And [people in those countries] are accustomed to criticism in the service of self-improvement in situations where Westerners avoid it or resent it.”

We certainly don’t want America’s education system to copy everything Japan does (and we remain agnostic regarding the wisdom of Confucius). But it seems to us that an emphasis on hard work is a hallmark not just of modern East Asia, but of America’s past as well. In returning to an emphasis on effort, America would be returning to its roots, not just copying from successful foreigners.

Besides cribbing a few tricks from the Japanese, we also have at least one American-style idea for making kids smarter: treat people who work hard at learning as heroes and role models. We already venerate sports heroes who make up for lack of talent through persistence and grit; why should our educational culture be any different?

Math education, we believe, is just the most glaring area of a slow and worrying shift. We see our country moving away from a culture of hard work toward a culture of belief in genetic determinism. In the debate between “nature vs. nurture,” a critical third element—personal perseverance and effort—seems to have been sidelined. We want to bring it back, and we think that math is the best place to start.

Follow Miles on Twitter at @mileskimball. Follow Noah at @noahpinion.

Visionary Grit

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Click here to watch the TEDTalk that inspired this post–Angela Duckworth’s talk “The Key to Success: The Surprising Trait That is MUCH More Important Than IQ.”

TED Weekends, which is associated with Huffington Post, asked me to write an essay on my reaction to Angela Duckworth’s wonderful talk about grit as the secret to success. Here is a link to my essay on TED Weekends:

Below is the full text of my essay. It pushes further the themes in the Quartz column I wrote with Noah Smith: “Power of Myth: There’s one key difference between kids who excel at math and those who don’t.”


Grit, more than anything else, is what makes people succeed. Psychologist Angela Duckworth, who has devoted her career to studying grit, defines grit this way:

Grit is passion and perseverance for very long-term goals. Grit is having stamina. Grit is sticking with your future, day in, day out, not just for the week, not just for the month, but for years – and working really hard to make that future a reality. Grit is living life like a marathon, not a sprint.

But where does grit come from? First, it comes from understanding and believing that grit is what makes people succeed:

  • understanding that persistence and hard work are necessary for lasting success, and
  • believing that few obstacles can ultimately stop those who keep trying with all of their hearts, and all of their wits.

But that is not enough. Grit also comes from having a vision, a dream, a picture in the mind’s eye, of something you want so badly, you are willing to work as hard and as long as it takes to achieve that dream. Coaches know how powerful dreams – dreams of making the team, of scoring a goal, of winning the game, or of winning a championship – can be for kids. Dreams of knowing the secrets of complex numbers, graduating from college, rising in a career, making a marriage work, achieving transcendence, changing the world, need to be powerful like that to have a decent chance of success.

Grit is so powerful that once the secret is out, a key concern is to steer kids toward visions that are not mutually contradictory. Not everyone can win the championship. Someone has to come in second place. But almost everyone can learn the secrets of complex numbers, graduate from college, rise in a career, make a marriage work, achieve transcendence, and change the world for the better.

What can adults do to help kids understand and believe that grit is what makes people succeed, and to help them find a vision that is powerful enough to motivate long, hard work? Noah Smith and I tried to do our bit with our column “Power of Myth: There’s one key difference between kids who excel at math and those who don’t.” We were amazed at the reception we got. Our culture may be turning the corner, ready to reject the vicious myth that out of any random sampling of kids, many are genetically doomed to failure at math, failure at everything in school, failure in their careers, or even failure at life. The amazing reception of Angela Duckworth’s TEDTalk is another good sign. But articles and TEDTalks won’t do the trick, because not everyone watches TEDTalks, and – as things are now – many people read only what they absolutely have to. So getting the word out that grit, not genes, is the secret to success, will take the work of the millions who do read and who do watch TEDTalks, to tell, one by one, the hundreds of millions in this country and in other countries with similar cultures about the importance of grit.

What can adults do to help kids get a vision that is powerful enough to motivate long, hard work? Many are already doing heroic work in that arena. But other would-be physicians among us must first heal ourselves. How many of us have a defeatist attitude when we think of the problems our nation and the world face? How many of us lack a vision of what we want to achieve that will motivate us to long, hard work, stretching over many years?

Visions don’t have to be perfect. It is enough if they are powerful motivators, and good rather than bad. And it is good to share our visions with one another. Here are some of the things that dance before my mind’s eye and motivate me: 12. I hope everyone who reads this will think about how to express her or his own vision – a vision that motivates hard work to better one’s own life and to better the world. That is the example we need to set for the kids.

Lately, since I started reading and thinking about the power of hard, deliberate effort, I have been catching myself; when I hear myself thinking “I am bad at X” I try to recast the thought as “I haven’t yet worked hard at getting good at X.” Some of the skills I haven’t yet worked at honing, I probably never will; there are only so many hours in the day. But with others, I have started trying a little harder, once I stopped giving myself the easy excuse of “I am bad at X.” There is no need to exaggerate the idea that almost everyone (and that with little doubt includes you) can get dramatically better at almost anything. But if we firmly believe that we can improve at those tasks to which we devote ourselves, surprising and wonderful things will happen.

Among the many wonderful visions we can pursue with the faith that working hard – with all of our hearts and all of our wits – will bear fruit, let’s devote ourselves to getting kids to understand that grit is the key to success. Let’s help them find visions that will motivate them to put in the incredibly hard effort necessary to do the amazing things that they are capable of, and help them tap the amazing potential they have as human beings.

Ideas are not set in stone. When exposed to thoughtful people, they morph and adapt into their most potent form. TEDWeekends will highlight some of today’s most intriguing ideas and allow them to develop in real time through your voice! Tweet #TEDWeekends to share your perspective or email tedweekends@huffingtonpost.com to learn about future weekend’s ideas to contribute as a writer.