The Evolution of Working from Home—Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis

Here is the link for an ungated pdf. And here is the abstract:

Working from home rose five-fold from 2019 to 2023, with 40% of US employees now working remotely at least one day a week. The productivity of remote work depends critically on the mode. Fully remote work is associated with about 10% lower productivity than fully in-person work. Challenges with communicating remotely, barriers to mentoring, building culture and issues with self-motivation appear to be factors. But fully remote work can generate even larger cost reductions from space savings and global hiring, making it a popular option for firms. Hybrid working appears to have no impact on productivity but is also popular with firms because it improves employee recruitment and retention. Looking ahead we predict working from home will continue to grow because of the expansion in research and development into new technologies to improve remote working. Hence, the pandemic generated both a one-off jump and a longer-run growth acceleration in working from home.

Zeolite Lessons

I liked David Shaywitz’s review of Charles Barber’s In the Blood for several reasons. First, there is some interesting physical chemistry. The reviewer David writes:

… zeolite … is composed of tiny caverns “in a series of endlessly repeating honeycomb patterns” that capture small molecules. Zeolite can help to separate nitrogen from oxygen since oxygen molecules pass through it more easily.

Second, this distillation of the book has an innovation story:

In 1983, as Mr. Hursey was thinking about those caverns, he found himself wondering if ground-up zeolite could treat an open wound by absorbing the liquid component of blood while leaving in place the components for clotting.

This idea worked!

Third, there is a story of misguided or corrupt resistance to this innovation, even after it had proven itself:

They ground up some zeolite, vacuum-sealed it with a food-storage device they picked up at Target, and sent it off to the competition. The product—which they called “QuikClot”—would outperform all comers, including the shrimp-based product that Dr. Holcomb and the Army had been developing.

Even with these results in hand, Messrs. Hursey and Gullong struggled for traction in the insular world of military contracting. …

Following a 1999 report conveying the successful use of a high-tech hemophilia drug to control bleeding in a wounded soldier, Dr. Holcomb and the Army pivoted to this approach. But it was pricey. Worse still, Factor Seven (as the drug was called) promoted coagulation systematically, potentially causing blood clots in unwanted places. An ethically dubious influence campaign by the manufacturer probably contributed to the product’s rapid adoption as well. In the end, concerns raised by Factor Seven clinical trials—along with a whistleblower lawsuit that culminated in a settlement with the Justice Department—damped interest, enabling QuikClot, at last, to win the day.

Finally, David draws an interesting set of conclusions:

The QuikClot story, so compellingly recounted by Mr. Barber, offers critical lessons about medical innovation: the importance of recognizing insights from nontraditional sources; the value of tinkering; the dismaying lengths to which incumbents often go to defend their turf; the fact that certitude, vital in some circumstances, can be detrimental in others. (A similar pattern can be seen in the determination of longitude in the 18th century, when a clockmaker figured it out ahead of resistant professional astronomers.)

Beyond that, David emphasizes the importance of persistence.

For me this all has resonance because stories of resistance to ideas that don’t come from the establishment are rife. Two examples I think of are the resistance to the Helicobacter pylori explanation for peptic ulcers and there is currently a lot of resistance to the idea that sugar in all its forms is much more unhealthy than dietary fat. I know of many other examples and am constantly on the lookout for more.

A Lull

Sleepsong by Secret Garden

Today marks the 11th anniversary of the first post on this blog. I have written an anniversary post every year since then:

  1. A Year in the Life of a Supply-Side Liberal

  2. Three Revolutions

  3. Beacons

  4. Why I Blog

  5. My Objective Function

  6. A Barycentric Autobiography

  7. Crafting Simple, Accurate Messages about Complex Problems

  8. On Human Potential

  9. Pandemic Passage: My Past 12 Months in Blogging

  10. Everything is Changing

This past year has been a lull in my blogging. My research on well-being with Dan Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, Kristen Cooper and an able team of RAs (see “Pushing Aside GDP for a Measure of Human Well-Being Turns Out to be Very, Very Difficult. Ask Dan Benjamin”) has heated up, and in my personal life, a move from a suburb of Boulder into Boulder —and other similarly arduous but benign changes just as important—have taken up a lot of my time. I plan to write an autobiography as soon as I retire; I’ll give the full story then.

Despite not putting a high priority on blogging this past year after an intense decade of blogging before that, I count 26 posts, interviews or tweetstorms this past year that are substantial and not just a pointer to someone else’s work. Here they are, in reverse chronological order:

Statistical interpretation and monetary policy are continuing themes. My favorite of all of these pieces is the Hexapodia podcast with Brad DeLong and Noah Smith.

Unfortunately, the next year looks very crowded for me as well. At some point, I hope to get out of the woods and then restart this blog on Substack.