Andrew Burton and Miles Kimball on the Rise of the Nationalist Right
Miles, do you agree with the full thesis of the article that you just quoted from?
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
Yeah, I didn’t have you down as someone who wants to amplify this thesis (with which I agree): “[T]he countries which keep producing these shocks are every bit as racist, xenophobic and discriminatory as their voting habits suggest.”
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
But we were that racist, xenophobic and discriminatory and still for a long time didn't produce a Trump or a Brexit vote or the other nationalist (in the pejorative sense) victories. What changed?
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
A third possible (wild) answer is this one:https://t.co/i6RkjVHGKE
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
Did you ever see this post?
I'd love to hear your views!
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
On gay rights, I wrote this:https://t.co/SqpqJ0VoBG
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
... histories of the European powers, their alliances and rivalries, and in the long retreat of the Ottoman Empire from the Balkans; there’s context in the years leading up to Summer 1914, including the two Balkan Wars; then there are randomness factors, the semi-farcical...
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
Similarly, in the US I see deep structural cycles which can loosely be called reconstruction and redemption (including the more recent tilt of immigration towards Mexico and Central America); the context of the prior decade (financial crisis/Great Recession, Obama’s election...
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
In the UK, the most important deep structure element was long ambivalence about the relationship with Europe, the sense by conservatives that the emerging European Union was a socialist project, and English nationalism (Fintan O’Toole is very good on this). Context, again, ...
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
Back to the WW1 analogy; had Frank Ferdinand not been assassinated, would a Great War in Europe have happened? And had Johnson campaigned with Cameron, or Comey followed DOJ regulations for actions during campaigns, might those outcomes have been different? Possibly.
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
I like your explanation a lot. Let me count it as a partial answer to my plea in
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
"Nationalists vs. Cosmopolitans: Social Scientists Need to Learn from Their Brexit Blunder"https://t.co/PSwY5V5X5j
Further back, many political events were driven by the Great Depression, which was also as bad as it was because due to monetary policy mistakes. With good monetary policy, or even modern monetary policy (which is still far from ideal), Great Depression wouldn't have been so bad.
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
That is to say that some big conflict might be hard to avoid, but on what terms that conflict is engaged and which side gets more of what it wants in the end can be affected a lot by context and the actions of key players.
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 25, 2019
... among others) in the run up to the 2008 crisis and what followed. I have read some of your writing on negative interest rates; stipulate, for the moment, that some combination of better monetary AND fiscal policy could have ameliorated the worst effects of the crisis.
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
... seen as an example of the Ultimatum Game, with depressed communities kicking back against London and “the elites.” To an extent, this is also what Fox News does in the US.
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
... thought that a bloc of Republican leaders and voters would reject his campaign (the last moment was the release of the Access Hollywood tape). But Bannon also represents the rise of a “burn it all down” movement on the Right.
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
... groups of voters believe that elites and governments no longer represent their interests, and so it’s time to reach for the pitchforks. Although elements of both the Left and the Right subscribe to these views (anti WTO demonstrations) it has taken stronger hold, ...
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
... now assert is the Democratic party’s hidden agenda, by which the Left plans to lock in an unbreakable governing majority (then continue to govern corruptly on the backs of Real Americans).
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
Yes, in "Nationalists vs. Cosmopolitans: Social Scientists Need to Learn from Their Brexit Blunder," I discuss this:
— Miles Kimball (@mileskimball) May 30, 2019
"in the US, the possibility of an immigrant-voter “nuclear option” for cementing a Cosmopolitan victory"https://t.co/PSwY5V5X5j
The second bet is that smashing stuff will work better than building it. The only governing principle I can see for Mitch McConnell is “Après nous le déluge.”
— Andrew Burton (@burtonad) May 25, 2019
Similar structural forces are at work in the UK, I think. (/ends. Your turn. 😀)