FocusEconomics: Predictions for the Global Economy in 2019 from 13 Experts
FocusEconomics asked various people, including me, for predictions about the global economy in 2019. Here is my answer, except that they left out my qualifying sentence at the beginning. I have restored it.
I am most likely to be wrong in my predictions for the global economy in 2019, but here is the picture in my head:
The US employment to population ratio will continue to creep up toward 61%, which given population growth implies robust new job numbers.
The euro-zone economy will continue to look sluggish, but will very gradually improve.
The UK economy will do OK, despite a continuing mess from Brexit. There is an outside, but important chance that a new referendum will cancel Brexit.
The Chinese economy will be the most important news in 2019. In particular, the financial system of the Chinese economy will show a lot of strain, even though the Chinese government will contain any potential financial crisis. Besides defaults and bailouts, the key thing to watch is whether borrowing rates for state-owned and state-favored enterprises and borrowing rates for private enterprises begin to converge. This is a key metric for whether the Chinese economy is moving in a healthy direction.
For world welfare, the most important news will be that Africa and India will continue to have significant growth in per capita income.